New York, Jan 7, 2026, 14:45 (EST) — Regular session
Oil prices fell on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said Venezuela would turn over 30 million to 50 million barrels of sanctioned crude to the United States, feeding fears of more supply in an already well-stocked market. Brent crude futures were down 40 cents, or 0.7%, at $60.31 a barrel by 11:05 a.m. ET, after touching $59.88, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down 74 cents, or 1.3%, at $56.39 after hitting $55.76; both benchmarks slid more than $1 in the previous session. SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye called the volumes small next to the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the emergency stockpile, while Morgan Stanley estimated the market could tip into a surplus of up to 3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026. 1
U.S. shale producers are starting the year in defence mode. EOG Resources finance chief Ann Janssen said oversupply and the prospect of higher output from Venezuela are pushing prices down, a trend she expects to last several more quarters, with Trump due to meet the heads of major oil companies at the White House on Friday, sources told Reuters. 2
A Reuters poll of 34 economists and analysts sees Brent averaging $61.27 a barrel in 2026 and WTI at $58.15, trimming the outlook from the previous month as supply growth outpaces demand. Respondents expect a surplus of around 0.5 million to 3.5 million barrels per day, and Oxford Economics forecast chief Bridget Payne said holding output steady through the first quarter offers some support but “does not materially alter the underlying surplus.” Forecasts ran from $55 at ABN Amro and Capital Economics to $68 at DBS, the poll showed, and it was conducted before the latest U.S. action in Venezuela and an OPEC+ policy meeting. 3
The Trump administration says it wants the crude moving again, with revenues parked where Washington can see them. Under the export plan described by Reuters, Chevron controls the flows under a U.S. authorisation and has been exporting 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day (bpd), while officials discussed auction-style sales and new licences that could reopen access for partners such as Eni, Repsol and India’s Reliance. U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told Fox News that more Venezuelan heavy oil into the U.S. Gulf would be “great news” for jobs and future gasoline prices; refiners there once imported about 500,000 bpd from Venezuela before Washington first imposed energy sanctions. 4
U.S. inventory data offered a mixed read. Commercial crude stocks excluding the SPR fell by 3.8 million barrels to 419.1 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 2, while gasoline inventories rose by 7.7 million and distillate stockpiles gained 5.6 million, the Energy Information Administration reported. Total products supplied, a proxy for demand, averaged 19.9 million bpd over the past four weeks, down 1.9% from a year earlier. 5
Washington is also moving to control the cash. The Department of Energy said proceeds from sales of Venezuelan oil will settle in U.S.-controlled accounts at globally recognised banks, and it has lined up commodity marketers and key lenders to execute the programme. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told a Goldman Sachs energy conference in Miami that the U.S. needs leverage over oil sales to drive changes in Venezuela, after authorities seized an empty Russian-flagged tanker linked to the country. 6
Traders have started to talk in round numbers again: Brent at $60, WTI at $55. If those levels give way, it could force more hedging and shut-in talk across high-cost producers, even as cheap Venezuelan barrels tempt refiners.
But the oil price forecast could still be wrong-footed. Venezuela’s output gains, if they come, may be slow, and OPEC+ has responded in the past when prices fall too far, too fast. The bigger downside is demand: a weak global growth patch would amplify the surplus and drag Brent toward the low end of forecasts.
The next hard catalyst is Friday’s U.S. employment report for December, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, which can swing the dollar and rate bets. The EIA updates its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Jan. 13 and the International Energy Agency publishes its next Oil Market Report on Jan. 21. Oil traders will fixate first on the jobs data on Jan. 9. 7
