NEW YORK, January 8, 2026, 07:03 EST — Premarket
U.S. mortgage rates today were little changed near 6.2%, while homebuilder shares slipped in premarket trade, with D.R. Horton down about 3.6%. Optimal Blue data put the average 30-year fixed conforming rate at 6.163% for loans locked as of Jan. 6, up roughly 1 basis point (0.01 percentage point) from the prior day. 1
That matters because the housing market is still rate-led: small moves feed straight into monthly payments and demand, especially for first-time buyers. Traders are also bracing for Friday’s U.S. employment report, which can swing Treasury yields and, in turn, mortgage pricing. 2
Markets have been digesting mixed U.S. data and trying to pin down how quickly the Federal Reserve will cut rates in 2026, a debate that has kept longer-term rates jumpy. Investors have been leaning toward at least two cuts this year even as the Fed has signaled a more cautious path. 3
Mortgage demand remains uneven. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its market index of loan application volume fell 9.7% from two weeks earlier in the week ending Jan. 2, after adjusting for the holiday period. “Mortgage rates started the New Year with a decline to 6.25%, the lowest level since September 2024,” said Joel Kan, the MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist. 4
On the equity side, D.R. Horton was pressured by a fresh caution flag from Citizens. Analyst James McCanless downgraded the builder to market perform, writing that consensus earnings estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027 “may be overly aggressive” and pointing to possible spring “inventory clearance” across the sector; Citizens also cut its stance on Lennar, citing the risk that clearing homes could weigh on margins and volumes for “at least two more quarters.” 5
The weakness was not isolated. Lennar was down about 2.3% and the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF fell roughly 2.4% in early action, while mortgage lenders were mixed, with Rocket Companies up about 0.3% and UWM Holdings higher in late trading.
Rate watchers are looking for the next push. Mortgage News Daily said Wednesday’s move left its 30-year index back around a two-month low after “mixed” economic reports, and it flagged Friday’s jobs report as a potential volatility trigger; the U.S. 10-year yield hovered around 4.15% on Thursday. 6
But the setup cuts both ways. A stronger-than-expected payrolls number could lift yields and mortgage rates again, tightening affordability and forcing builders to lean harder on incentives that squeeze margins. A weaker print would do the opposite, though it could also revive worries about the broader economy and job security among would-be buyers.
