Sydney, January 9, 2026, 16:54 AEDT — Market closed
- BHP shares finished higher as Rio Tinto and Glencore confirmed early-stage takeover talks.
- Investors weighed whether dealmaking in copper forces rivals to respond, or stay disciplined.
- BHP’s next operational update later this month is the key near-term catalyst.
BHP Group Ltd shares ended Friday higher after Rio Tinto and Glencore said they were in early talks that could reshape the top end of global mining and, on paper, knock BHP off the top spot by market value. The companies said the expectation was an all-share buyout — paid in stock, not cash — and UK takeover rules give Rio until Feb. 5 to make a formal offer or walk away. 1
The read-through for BHP is copper. Big miners are chasing exposure to the metal used in wiring and motors, and now in fast-growing data centres, because supply is tight and demand is rising. 2
Some investors said that same copper logic does not automatically justify a sprawling deal. RBC analyst Kaan Peker said BHP has “a cleaner growth profile in copper than a merged Rio/Glencore” and he did not think it needed to do anything. 3
BHP shares closed up 0.8% at A$47.72, leaving them 4.9% higher than the close seven days earlier, Morningstar data on InvestSMART’s Intelligent Investor site showed. The stock has traded between A$45.37 and A$48.49 so far this year. 4
There was little fresh company news to lean on. No announcements were released by BHP to the ASX over the past week, the exchange’s disclosures page showed. 5
That leaves the next move tied to what BHP says about volumes and costs, and what it doesn’t. Traders typically focus on iron ore shipments and realised prices, copper output and unit costs, and any sign the company is tightening or loosening capital spending.
But the stock is still heavily exposed to China-linked bulk commodities. A softer run in iron ore, or a surprise lift in costs, can swamp any copper narrative quickly, especially if the broader market turns risk-off.
