SYDNEY, Jan 9, 2026, 17:50 (AEDT) — Market closed
- Lynas fell 1% on Friday after a two-day whipsaw
- China’s Japan-focused export controls put rare earth supply back in play
- Lynas’ next catalyst is its Dec-quarter update on Jan 21
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd shares ended down 1.0% at A$14.10 on Friday, after swinging between A$14.02 and A$14.78 in a choppy session. The stock had jumped 14.5% on Wednesday and then slid 5.4% on Thursday, leaving it still sharply higher over the past three sessions despite Friday’s dip. 1
The moves matter because Lynas is a key non-Chinese supplier in a market where policy headlines can turn into price moves fast. Rare earths are used in magnets for motors and other parts in cars and electric vehicles, and buyers tend to react when supply looks less certain.
China’s commerce ministry said on Thursday its ban on exports of dual-use items to Japan would only affect military firms. “Civilian users will not be affected,” spokesperson He Yadong told reporters, while adding China aimed to protect global supply chains; he did not say whether rare earth elements were covered and did not comment on reports that authorities were weighing tighter rare-earth export licences to Japan. 2
A Wall Street Journal report added to the jitters, saying China has begun restricting exports of rare earths and powerful magnets to Japanese companies and that export licence reviews may have stalled more broadly across Japanese industry. Reuters could not immediately confirm the report. 3
Lynas mines and initially processes rare earth oxides at Mt Weld in Western Australia, then ships material to its processing plant in Malaysia, according to the company. It sells separated rare earth materials used in electronics, wind turbines and hybrid and electric vehicles. 4
The company has its own near-term date on the calendar. Lynas said in an ASX filing it will announce quarterly results for the period ending Dec. 31, 2025 on Jan. 21, and CEO Amanda Lacaze will host an analyst and shareholder briefing at noon Sydney time that day. 5
For traders, the A$14 area is now the line in the sand after Friday’s late-week pullback, with this week’s peak at A$15.44 setting the first obvious ceiling. The stock’s wide intraday ranges suggest headline risk is still driving the tape as much as fundamentals.
There is a risk that the current supply scare fades quickly. If Beijing convinces markets the measures will stay narrow and licensing keeps flowing for civilian end-users, some of the speculative bid in non-China names could cool, especially ahead of a quarterly update that may still show how tough pricing and costs can be in the sector.
The unease is not limited to Asia. “There is a trend towards the weaponisation of the supply chain … particularly … for rare earths,” Safran CEO Olivier Andries said in Paris on Thursday, warning that dependence on China remains a pressure point for industry. 6
Next up, investors will watch for any further detail on China’s export licensing stance over the weekend and into Monday’s open, then turn quickly to Lynas’ Jan. 21 quarterly report and Lacaze’s briefing for guidance on sales, pricing and output.
