London, Jan 9, 2026, 10:17 GMT — Regular session
- Glencore shares rose about 8% in London after it confirmed preliminary talks with Rio Tinto
- The UK takeover timetable gives Rio until Feb. 5 to announce a firm offer or walk away
- Glencore also disclosed fresh buyback activity; next scheduled updates are Jan. 29 and Feb. 18
Glencore shares jumped 8.4% to 447.7 pence on Friday after the miner said it was in preliminary discussions with Rio Tinto about a possible all-share deal — meaning shareholders would be paid in shares rather than cash. The company said Rio must, by Feb. 5, announce a firm intention to make an offer or say it will not proceed. 1
For Glencore investors, the talks drag the stock back into deal maths: what price Rio would put on coal cashflows, a big trading operation and copper assets the market keeps chasing. It also lands as miners look for scale while project timelines stretch and costs stay jumpy.
Glencore said any transaction could cover “some or all” of the businesses and would likely be done through a scheme of arrangement, a court-approved process often used in UK takeovers. That makes the timeline clearer, but it still leaves the hard bits — price, assets and who runs what — hanging.
Separately, Glencore disclosed another off-market leg of its buyback, buying 8.4 million shares from UBS on Jan. 8 for cancellation. The company said the buyback programme is expected to be completed by the time it releases full-year results in February. 2
A tie-up would create the world’s biggest miner by market value, overtaking BHP Group, Reuters reported. Jefferies analysts called the structure “unclear” and said it would likely be complex, while Hugh Dive, chief investment officer at Atlas Funds Management, said: “Investors are not happy with this.” 3
There are plenty of ways this goes wrong. Talks can break down, regulators can dig in, and the coal question in particular could force asset sales that change the economics, while a takeover premium big enough to land the deal could test Rio’s shareholder support.
Beyond deal headlines, Glencore’s next scheduled catalyst is its full-year production report and resources and reserves update on Jan. 29, followed by preliminary annual results on Feb. 18. Those releases should give traders a firmer read on volumes, costs and cash returns as deal speculation swirls. 4
For now, Glencore shares are likely to trade on fresh chatter and any further statement from either side, with Feb. 5 the next hard date investors can’t ignore.
