London, Jan 9, 2026, 11:02 GMT — Regular session
BAE Systems (BAES.L) shares were up 1.24% at 2,048 pence in London trade on Friday, keeping the stock near recent highs. The shares have moved between 2,026 and 2,063 pence so far, within reach of a 52-week high of 2,071 pence, after opening at 2,032. Just over 1 million shares had traded, according to London Stock Exchange data. 1
The catalyst is Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump said the 2027 U.S. military budget should be $1.5 trillion, versus the $901 billion approved for 2026, and he threatened to block dividends and share buybacks — when companies repurchase their own shares — until contractors speed up weapons production. Neil Wilson, an investor strategist at Saxo Bank, said “Geopolitics is the inescapable story of 2026 thus far”, while Morgan Stanley analysts led by Kristine Liwag wrote: “A limit on capital return is an incremental negative, but the size is manageable.” RBC Capital Markets analysts led by Ken Herbert pointed to “significant uncertainty” around the final defence budget and noted any sharp increase would still need Congress, even as investors piled into UK names with U.S. exposure such as Chemring and Avon Technologies alongside BAE. 2
BAE jumped about 5% on Thursday as the FTSE 350 defence sub-index hit a record high, Reuters reported, even as the broader FTSE 100 ended flat. The focus now turns to the U.S. December jobs report due on Friday for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. 3
For BAE, the story is awkward in a useful way: bigger U.S. budgets usually mean more work, but any hard clampdown on payouts could change how investors compare defence primes.
Dividends and buybacks sit in the background as a kind of shorthand for cash generation. If that shorthand gets blurred in the U.S., the market can end up chasing whichever listed names look least constrained, even if the contracts flow across borders.
The tape on Friday looked like steady follow-through rather than a fresh burst. That can still matter, because the stock is sitting close to its own ceiling and a small move can turn into a level-break.
But the rally is running on politics and headline risk. If the spending talk softens, or if the dividend-and-buyback warnings get narrowed in practice, defence shares could cool fast and give back gains.
BAE’s next scheduled company catalyst is its final results on Feb. 18, when investors will look for guidance on demand, cash generation and shareholder returns. 4
