NEW YORK, Jan 9, 2026, 11:39 EST — Regular session
Exxon Mobil (XOM) shares rose 0.6% to $123.63 on Friday after the oil major said lower crude prices could cut fourth-quarter upstream earnings — its oil and gas production business — by about $800 million to $1.2 billion. It also said stronger refining margins, the gap between crude costs and fuel prices, could lift earnings by $300 million to $700 million, while restructuring charges may shave about $200 million. Analysts expect adjusted earnings of $1.66 per share; “many brokers, including us, have yet to mark to market,” Scotiabank analysts wrote. 1
The filing lands just ahead of a wave of fourth-quarter reports from big energy producers, and it sets the opening range for how much the late-2025 slide in crude and gas prices may show up in profits. For traders, the numbers matter less as a forecast than as a reset of assumptions.
Oil prices climbed again on Friday on supply worries, keeping the broader energy tape firm; Brent was up 0.8% at $62.49 a barrel and U.S. crude gained 0.9% to $58.27. “Iran protests seem to be gathering momentum, leading the market to worry about disruptions,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity analysis at Saxo Bank, said. Chevron shares rose 1.4%. 2
Exxon also popped up in overseas exploration news this week. Turkey’s state oil company TPAO and Exxon’s Esso Exploration International Limited unit signed a memorandum of understanding covering new exploration areas in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said, calling it a step to “pave the way for new discoveries.” The ministry statement gave no spending figure or drilling timetable. 3
Exxon’s quarterly “earnings considerations” updates have become a quick read for investors trying to separate price swings from what management can control — volumes, maintenance and costs. This quarter, the production hit is doing the talking, even with refining offering some cover.
But the setup can turn fast. A pullback in crude, weaker fuel demand or a fresh squeeze in gas prices could drag results below current forecasts and weigh on what Exxon says about shareholder returns and spending.
Investors now look to Exxon’s fourth-quarter report on Jan. 30, when the company expects to post results at about 5:30 a.m. Central time on its website and in an SEC filing. The focus will be on how much refining offsets the upstream hit, and what Exxon says about costs and returns in 2026. 4
