Ondas stock in focus after $1B above-market deal — dilution math, next catalysts

Ondas stock in focus after $1B above-market deal — dilution math, next catalysts

NEW YORK, Jan 10, 2026, 07:27 (EST) — Market closed

  • Ondas shares dropped 2.3% on Friday following the announcement of a $1 billion share-and-warrant offering
  • The package features pre-funded warrants alongside long-dated warrants, potentially driving a significant increase in the share count
  • Traders are shifting focus to next week’s data releases and Ondas’ upcoming investor events

Ondas Holdings Inc (ONDS) saw its shares fall 2.3% on Friday following the pricing of a $1 billion stock-and-warrant offering at $16.45 per share, above the previous close. The stock ended the session at $13.69, after swinging between $13.61 and $15.09, with roughly 114 million shares changing hands. (ACCESS Newswire)

The financing is sizable compared to Ondas’ market value of about $5.3 billion, sparking concerns about dilution. According to the company’s disclosed terms and current share count, the common-stock equivalents in the deal make up roughly 16% of outstanding shares. Warrants tied to the financing could push that dilution higher, potentially adding another 32% if fully exercised. (MarketWatch)

Ondas announced a registered direct offering that includes 19 million shares alongside pre-funded warrants for up to 41.79 million additional shares; these pre-funded warrants generally require only a minimal payment at exercise. Each security carries a seven-year warrant allowing the purchase of two extra shares at $28 each. The package was priced roughly 17.5% above Ondas’ Jan. 8 closing price, in line with Nasdaq’s “above-the-market” rules. The company expects to wrap up the sale around Jan. 12, planning to deploy the net proceeds toward acquisitions, joint ventures, and other growth initiatives. (Ondas Holdings)

On Friday, a separate filing revealed unaudited summary financials for Sentry CS Ltd, the Israeli counter-drone firm Ondas acquired last November. According to the filing, Sentry posted $11.3 million in sales for 2024 alongside a net loss of $13.5 million. An 8-K filed the previous day addressed the possible resale of roughly 1.67 million shares issued as part of that deal.

Technicians have their eyes on the $15 level following Friday’s peak, with the $13.60 mark drawing attention after the session’s dip; the stock trades close to its 52-week high. Ondas’ 14-day relative strength index, which flags readings over 70 as potentially overbought, hovered near 76. (Investing)

The structure works both ways. The pre-funded warrants act like shares, but the common warrants need a steady push above $28 before they can convert into cash.

Next week’s risk appetite for small-cap stocks might hinge on macroeconomic data, including Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price index and Wednesday’s retail sales reports. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, yields could rise, squeezing speculative growth shares. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Ondas hasn’t set its next earnings date yet; MarketBeat estimates it will be March 11, following its usual schedule. Ahead of that, CEO Eric Brock is scheduled for a fireside chat at Needham’s Growth Conference on Jan. 14. The company also plans a virtual investor day on Jan. 16, where it will share its outlook for 2026. (MarketBeat)

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