Sydney, January 11, 2026, 16:54 AEDT — The market has closed.
- Speculation about deals in the mining sector has flared up again following renewed takeover talks between Rio Tinto and Glencore.
- BHP shares closed Friday in Sydney up 0.8%, as investors debated whether the company would remain on the sidelines.
- Traders have their eyes on Rio’s offer deadline set for Feb. 5 and BHP’s upcoming production update on Jan. 20.
BHP Group Ltd (BHP.AX) kicks off the week with merger chatter resurfacing, following Rio Tinto’s confirmation of takeover talks with Glencore. This development could shake up the mining rankings and keep BHP squarely in the spotlight.
Rio and Glencore described the talks as preliminary, with the plan centered on an all-share buyout of “some or all” of Glencore. This means payment would come in shares, not cash. Under UK takeover rules, Rio has until Feb. 5 to make a firm offer or walk away. Glencore’s shares jumped over 10% on Friday, while Rio’s dropped as much as 3%. 1
BHP’s options are under scrutiny as investors eye consolidation in copper, a key metal for power grids and electric wiring. RBC analyst Kaan Peker noted, “I think BHP has a cleaner growth profile in copper than a merged Rio/Glencore so I don’t think they need to do anything.” On the other hand, Atlas Funds Management CIO Hugh Dive captured the mood among Rio shareholders bluntly: “Investors are not happy with this.” 2
BHP shares in Sydney wrapped Friday up 0.8%, closing at A$47.72. Over in New York, the company’s U.S.-listed shares slipped roughly 2%, ending the day at $61.72. 3
Talk of a deal rarely stays confined to the companies directly involved. “This is yet another example that the mining space is consolidating and the big firms are being forced to do corporate action to create value,” said Mark Kelly, CEO at advisory firm MKI Global. Richard Hatch, an analyst at Berenberg, pointed to BHP as “the most likely interloper,” though BHP declined to comment, Reuters reported. 4
One idea gaining traction is BHP stepping back, letting others tussle over Glencore while it hunts for copper opportunities elsewhere. Alternatively, it could stick to its current projects, banking on solid execution rather than chasing risky deals.
Copper is carrying much of the weight in these talks. When prices spike, the case for snapping up existing production instead of investing in new projects grows stronger—particularly as major miners face pressure to boost output without sending costs through the roof.
BHP investors are set to get a clearer picture on the growth-versus-discipline debate shortly. The company has an operational review, covering production and sales, scheduled for Jan. 20. Its half-year results will follow on Feb. 17. 5
Merger speculation can flare up quickly—and just as fast, it can fade. A drop in copper prices or a hiccup in negotiations would sap momentum from the consolidation play. If talks move forward, regulators and overlapping assets might shift the deal’s economics and push timelines out.
BHP holders are less concerned with who might buy whom in the short term and more focused on whether the ongoing deal chatter will trigger a strategic move. Adding to the uncertainty, BHP’s CEO succession plans, mentioned by sources in recent reports, remain a key factor markets will watch closely.
As trading kicks off in Sydney on Monday, investors will probably watch BHP closely, using it as a gauge for sentiment around major miner M&A deals—alongside Rio and Glencore. BHP’s next key date is Jan. 20, while Rio faces its Feb. 5 deadline not far behind.
