LONDON, Jan 11, 2026, 07:53 GMT — The market has closed.
- Glencore jumped 9.6% on Friday after confirming preliminary talks with Rio Tinto about a potential all-share merger
- Investor disclosure filings have been triggered by UK takeover rules; the “put up or shut up” deadline falls on Feb. 5
- Glencore plans to release its production report on Jan. 29, followed by its annual results on Feb. 18
Glencore’s shares surged 9.6% on Friday, closing at 452.65 pence amid growing speculation that takeover discussions with Rio Tinto might soon solidify. During the session, the stock fluctuated between 437.90 and 459.00 pence. 1
The companies confirmed they are in early talks about potentially combining parts or all of their businesses, possibly through an all-share merger—meaning a stock-for-stock deal instead of cash. Rio has until 5 p.m. London time on Feb. 5 to either declare a firm intention to make an offer or step back, according to Rule 2.6 of the UK Takeover Code. 2
The timing is crucial, arriving in a market already ripe for mining consolidation, with copper squarely in the spotlight. Reuters reported the deal could forge a group valued close to $207 billion as miners race to secure assets linked to electrification and energy-intensive data centres. Jefferies analysts noted the structure remains unclear but flagged “a path to significant value creation” if the pieces align. 3
Glencore is now testing the upper end of its recent trading range. According to Hargreaves Lansdown, the stock’s 52-week high sits at 459.00 pence, while the low is 205.00 pence. On Friday, roughly 118.7 million shares changed hands, valuing the company at about £53 billion. 4
The rally extended across the sector on Friday. Glencore surged nearly 10%, while Rio slipped 2.6%, as European stocks closed at a new high. Traders weighed M&A news against shifting U.S. rate forecasts and the chance of a “hot” inflation report next week, ING noted. 5
Deal chatter is pulling peers into focus. Some analysts told Reuters that BHP — the largest listed miner at the moment — could be the main spoiler if talks move forward, though the company has stayed silent. “The most likely interloper to this deal is BHP,” said Berenberg analyst Richard Hatch. 6
The regulatory framework is becoming clearer. A Takeover Panel notice detailed the disclosure requirements under Rule 8.3, stating that investors holding 1% or more of relevant securities in Glencore or either of Rio’s dual-listed entities must submit opening position disclosures by 3:30 p.m. London time on Jan. 22. 7
Filings have started to surface. On Friday, a Form 8.3 revealed Geode Capital Management owns 108,409,875 Glencore shares—roughly 0.92%. The firm also flagged ongoing disclosures related to Rio Tinto. 8
But the upside isn’t straightforward. Reuters noted some Rio shareholders worry about overpaying and cited the weak track record of mega-mergers in mining. “Investors are not happy with this,” said Hugh Dive from Atlas Funds Management. The report also highlighted possible Chinese antitrust issues and the tricky matter of Glencore’s coal assets in any merged entity. 9
Glencore is set to shift focus away from M&A with a busy schedule ahead. The company will release its full-year 2025 production report along with an update on resources and reserves on Jan. 29. Preliminary annual results are due shortly after, on Feb. 18. 10
Monday’s session will probably see the stock act as a deal proxy, reacting swiftly to filings, leaks, or any change in tone from either side. The hard deadline is Feb. 5 at 5 p.m. London time, when Rio must either make a firm offer or withdraw—unless the Takeover Panel decides to grant an extension. 11
