London, Jan 11, 2026, 07:53 (GMT) — Market closed.
- Shares of Rio Tinto slipped roughly 3% in London on Friday, following confirmation of preliminary discussions with Glencore.
- Analysts noted that the merged entity would surpass BHP, increasing the likelihood of a counterbid.
- Investors are focused on Rio’s operations review set for Jan. 21 and the takeover-code deadline on Feb. 5.
Shares of Rio Tinto plc fell 3.0% to 6,006 pence on Friday, as investors mulled over a potential deal with Glencore, whose stock jumped roughly 10% that day. 1
These talks are significant as they revive a rare chance for a major merger in the sector. Reuters estimates the combined market value of the two companies at around $207 billion, surpassing BHP. Richard Hatch from Berenberg noted that BHP was “the most likely interloper” should the deal move forward. 2
Rio has until Feb. 5 to either declare a firm bid or drop the idea under UK takeover rules, though that deadline could be pushed back. Copper is the key driver here, with prices hitting record highs this week and miners scrambling for scale after a spree of major deals, like Anglo American’s bid for Teck Resources. Still, both Rio and Glencore have cautioned there’s no guarantee these discussions will end in a deal. 3
Investors remain divided over the rationale, particularly regarding price discipline. Hugh Dive, chief investment officer at Atlas Funds Management, warned that “you’d have to pay a premium,” which poses issues in an all-share deal where compensation comes mostly in stock rather than cash. 4
One item keeps popping up in calls: Glencore’s marketing business, the commodity trading arm that handles buying, selling, and shipping metals and energy. Sources close to the matter told Reuters that Rio is likely eyeing that unit, which Goldman Sachs values at around $4 billion by 2030. Derren Nathan from Hargreaves Lansdown flagged the “big questions” as how Rio plans to manage both the coal and trading divisions. 5
Advisers are lining up fast. Bankers told Reuters that fees for a Rio-Glencore deal could exceed $100 million. Both companies lean on a familiar set of Wall Street firms they’ve partnered with for years. 6
Separately, a longstanding U.S. securities case involving the group saw some relief on Friday. The Securities and Exchange Commission decided to drop its civil suit against former Rio Tinto CFO Guy Elliott. This case was tied to the miner’s troubled coal venture in Mozambique. 7
Rio’s shares in London fluctuated between 5,991p and 6,118p on Friday, closing just shy of 6,000p following a rally that pushed the stock close to its 52-week peak of 6,317p. 8
Macro risk has resurfaced with the U.S. consumer price index for December set to drop Tuesday at 0830 ET. This report could shake the dollar and send ripples through base metals and mining stocks. 9
The deal faces more hurdles than smooth sailing. Regulatory hurdles, particularly in China, remain a major concern. What Rio does with Glencore’s coal assets and its trading culture could trigger a shareholder dispute. George Cheveley, portfolio manager at Ninety One, noted Rio recently “failed to outline a convincing path to growth beyond 2030,” making investors cautious about placing a big bet. 10
Rio is set to release its fourth-quarter operations review on Jan. 21, followed by annual results on Feb. 19. Both dates fall before the Feb. 5 deadline tied to the takeover code, which remains a key factor in ongoing discussions. 11
