New York, January 11, 2026, 12:16 EST — Market closed.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the gold-backed ETF, closed Friday at $414.47, gaining 0.7% after hitting an intraday peak of $415.29. 1
U.S. markets were closed on Sunday, leaving gold-linked stocks hovering near record highs as the week begins. The next big shift will probably hinge on macroeconomic factors rather than miners’ production levels.
Gold has acted as a barometer for rates and risk. Sharp moves are common when investors flip between betting on “Fed cuts” and “Fed on hold.”
Spot gold climbed 0.5% to $4,496.09 an ounce Friday afternoon, set for a roughly 3.9% gain this week. The metal had hit an all-time high of $4,549.71 on Dec. 26. December’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 50,000 — falling short of the 60,000 forecast — while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.4%. TD Securities’ Bart Melek pointed to “poor job creation,” geopolitical tensions, and a softer Fed as a “combination for precious metals.” The U.S. Supreme Court isn’t expected to rule Friday on the challenge to President Donald Trump’s tariffs; a decision is now anticipated Jan. 14. Looking ahead, Metals Focus sees gold potentially topping $5,000 by 2026. 2
Gold miners moved with the market. Newmont (NEM) gained 2%, closing at $108.99 on Friday. Royal Gold (RGLD) edged up 0.6% to $245.20, and Barrick Mining (B) increased 0.8% to $47.81. 3
The dollar held steady despite the weaker payrolls report. The dollar index climbed 0.25%, while traders now see a 95% probability the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its Jan. 27-28 meeting, per CME’s FedWatch. Steve Englander of Standard Chartered noted the payroll figures could simply fall within a normal margin of error. 4
The recent surge means there’s little margin for error. If the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes in hotter than expected, real yields could spike and financial conditions tighten, draining cash from bullion and its tracking ETFs.
Next up, major U.S. banks start rolling out fourth-quarter earnings, with JPMorgan set to report Tuesday, Jan. 13 — the same day December CPI figures drop. “All the inflation numbers are going to be critical to what Fed policy is going to look like,” said Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, global investment strategist at Hartford Funds. 5
