London, Jan 12, 2026, 07:53 GMT — Premarket
Rio Tinto (RIO.L) starts Monday under takeover speculation after confirming early talks with Glencore about a potential stock-for-stock merger. The miner indicated any deal might take the form of a court-approved “scheme of arrangement,” a typical UK takeover method, but emphasized there’s no guarantee an offer will materialize. 1
Why this matters now: the deal would combine two vast mining operations and push the industry further into copper, a crucial metal for power grids and data centres. Major miners are chasing scale and long-life reserves, aiming to meet demand without the long waits new projects typically require.
The prospect of a Rio-Glencore merger has turned the spotlight on BHP. Advisers, investors, and bankers told Reuters that the world’s biggest miner is the likeliest spoiler — poised either to counter Glencore’s move or to pursue a separate deal to maintain its edge, with copper demand driving consolidation efforts. 2
Rio’s shares on the London market last traded at 6,006 pence Friday, slipping 3.04%. The stock heads into the first full week after the talks emerged on a weaker note. 3
Rio faces a deadline as well. The UK Takeover Code’s “put up or shut up” rule demands Rio either make a firm offer or step back by 5 p.m. London time on Feb. 5, unless the Takeover Panel grants more time.
Deal mechanics will be crucial. Rio mentioned the discussions involve “some or all” of the businesses, leaving investors uncertain about what remains intact — and what could be offloaded — if talks progress past the initial phase.
One case made for copper involves BHP. Richard Hatch at Berenberg told Reuters, “The most likely interloper to this deal is BHP,” suggesting a rival bidder might seek Glencore’s copper assets while offloading other divisions.
Mark Kelly, CEO of MKI Global, described the discussions as a slice of a larger trend: “This is yet another example that the mining space is consolidating and the big firms are being forced to do corporate action to create value,” he said. He singled out Vale and Freeport as companies that might attract interest, though he doubts they’ll be putting themselves up for sale.
Sceptics highlight the tough challenges ahead. A banking source told Reuters that a Glencore deal would probably need asset sales to address competition issues, while the vast scope of Glencore’s holdings could make valuation and regulatory approval tricky.
BHP’s timeline remains unclear. Sources told Reuters the company is gearing up to name a new CEO, a move that could either stall major decisions or speed them up if the incoming leader pushes for change.
The downside is clear: talks could collapse again, leaving Rio stuck in weeks of deal speculation without a deal. Even if they reach an agreement, regulators might insist on asset sales, and shareholders could resist dilution or acquiring unwanted businesses.
Signs are emerging before the Feb. 5 deadline. Takeover Panel Rule 8.3 requires investors holding 1% or more in relevant securities to disclose their stakes by 3:30 p.m. London time on Jan. 22. This could reveal who’s quietly accumulating shares as the situation develops. 4
Operational figures could help clear the fog. Rio is set to release its 2025 fourth-quarter operations update on Jan. 21 (Sydney 8:30 a.m.; London 9:30 p.m. on Jan. 20), offering insight into iron ore and copper output as the deal deadline approaches. 5
