New York, January 12, 2026, 07:45 (EST) — Premarket
- Traders said Vitol and Trafigura are offering Venezuelan crude for delivery in March to refiners in India and China.
- Brent dipped to around $63 a barrel, with traders balancing the threat of unrest in Iran against anticipated exports from Venezuela.
- The U.S. effort to protect Venezuelan oil revenues from creditors is running up against Big Oil’s legal and political hesitations.
Vitol and Trafigura have begun talks with refiners in India and China to buy Venezuelan crude for March delivery, according to trade sources on Monday. These discussions mark some of the first serious moves by major traders to secure cargoes as Venezuela gears up to resume exports under a U.S.-supported program. One trader saw an offer pricing a cargo at an $8 to $8.50 per barrel discount to ICE Brent, the global benchmark, with delivery into Asia. The companies have reached out to Indian Oil and Hindustan Petroleum, and also contacted China’s PetroChina. Another source added that Vitol has already shipped a naphtha cargo expected to arrive at Venezuela’s Jose terminal on Jan. 28—a crucial step since this lighter fuel is used to dilute Venezuela’s heavy crude. 1
The bid is emerging first in Asia, the traditional hub for Venezuela’s heavy sour grades before U.S. sanctions and shipping restrictions forced shipments into a gray area, widening discounts. The question now is whether these barrels mark ongoing trade or simply a one-time clearance of crude stranded offshore.
Oil prices dipped early on. Brent futures dropped 31 cents, or 0.5%, settling at $63.03 a barrel by 10:45 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped 36 cents, or 0.6%, to $58.76. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo cited weaker European stocks and a “lack of additional supply disruptions” following last week’s rally. Meanwhile, MST Marquee’s Saul Kavonic said the market remains cautious, waiting for tangible supply damage before reassessing risk around the Strait of Hormuz, the key Gulf export route. 2
A Reuters report over the weekend highlighted the logistics side. Sources said Vitol plans to load around 460,000 barrels of naphtha from Houston onto the Hellespont Protector, bound for Venezuela, as the U.S. pushes to restart exports. PDVSA had cut output recently due to a naval blockade and storage issues causing crude to pile up on ships. Commodity Context analyst Rory Johnston noted that U.S. shipments might replace Russian naphtha, which had stepped in after Washington started canceling earlier licenses. 3
The less glamorous side of Venezuela’s oil saga involves diluent shortages, tank bottoms, port bottlenecks, and the tricky question of whether insurers and shipowners will handle shipments without costly detours. Heavy crude won’t flow in volume without blending, and storage delays can force wells offline fast.
Washington is scrambling to untangle legal issues surrounding the first sales. Reuters reported that Vitol and Trafigura outpaced U.S. majors in landing the initial export deals by moving quickly, taking on risk, and handling shipping and paperwork in areas where the majors get bogged down by compliance and boardroom delays. A White House official told Reuters the barrels were secured at “record speed.” The administration also issued an executive order to block courts and creditors from seizing Venezuelan oil revenue held in U.S. Treasury accounts, as officials work on a roughly $2 billion plan involving up to 50 million barrels of crude trapped by the blockade. 4
The longer-term picture is more complicated. On Sunday, Trump hinted he might continue excluding Exxon Mobil from Venezuela, after CEO Darren Woods described the country as “uninvestable” without legal and commercial reforms plus better safeguards for capital. Woods also pointed out that Exxon had assets seized there twice. Meanwhile, ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance pushed for debt and system restructuring, according to the report. 5
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, analysts remain bearish on the curve. Goldman Sachs held steady on its 2026 average price forecasts, predicting $56 a barrel for Brent and $52 for WTI in a note released Sunday. The outlook hinges on an expected surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day and climbing OECD inventories. The bank advised shorting the Brent time-spread—from Q3 2026 through December 2028—to capitalize on the anticipated oversupply. 6
But Venezuela’s supply boost isn’t straightforward. Initial shipments face hurdles like creditor disputes, sanctions frameworks, and the condition of ports and ships. It’ll take a while for diluent and spare parts to turn into consistent production instead of erratic exports. At the same time, any flare-up around Hormuz or tougher U.S. sanctions on Russia could easily overshadow the extra barrels traders expect from Venezuela.
Execution is next on the radar. Traders are eyeing Trafigura’s first Venezuelan shipment headed to the U.S., expected this week, while Vitol’s naphtha delivery to Jose is due Jan. 28. Then there’s Tuesday’s White House meeting on Iran — a headline that could turn the market on a dime.
