New York, Jan 13, 2026, 08:54 EST — Premarket
- BigBear.ai shares hovered close to Monday’s finish, with traders holding back after a volatile run.
- Focus turns to the Jan. 16 redemption of the company’s 6% convertible notes maturing in 2029.
- Investors are weighing new U.S. inflation figures and their potential impact on rate cuts.
Shares of BigBear.ai Holdings edged slightly lower in premarket trading Tuesday, following a 1.77% gain to $6.31 in the previous session. 1
Attention turns to the coming days as the small-cap defense AI company faces a Jan. 16 redemption deadline on its 6.00% convertible senior secured notes due 2029 — bonds that can convert into shares. A regulatory filing detailed the terms, highlighting a boosted share conversion rate for notes converted in early January. 2
Investors digested the December U.S. Consumer Price Index data, with prices climbing 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, according to the Labor Department. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, ticked up 0.2% for the month and 2.6% over the past year. 3
BigBear.ai announced earlier this month plans to slash roughly $125 million in debt via a combination of voluntary conversions and cash redemptions for any notes not converted by the deadline. The company aims to issue around 38 million shares to cover conversions. CEO Kevin McAleenan described the move as “an important step” toward bolstering the balance sheet. 4
For a company of its scale, the stock saw notably heavy volume. On Monday, shares fluctuated between $6.06 and $6.35, with roughly 62.9 million shares traded, according to Nasdaq data. 5
Convertible notes can lower borrowing costs, yet they risk diluting shareholders if the debt turns into equity. This trade-off is front and center again: reduced interest expenses and lighter leverage come at the cost of adding more shares to the market.
There’s a catch. Noteholders aren’t obligated to convert, which means the company must pay cash to redeem any notes left unconverted by the deadline. Plus, if holders decide to sell the shares they get, the increased float could put pressure on the stock.
Investors should note a key date on the calendar: BigBear.ai’s investor site shows a special stockholders meeting scheduled to reconvene on Jan. 22 at 3:00 p.m. EST. 6
Traders have viewed smaller AI names as rate-sensitive plays, with price swings often magnified by movements in bond yields and shifts in risk appetite—beyond just the company’s own capital-structure moves. Defense-oriented analytics firms like Palantir also navigate this tricky mix of government spending forecasts and fluctuating market multiples.
