NEW YORK, Jan 13, 2026, 10:15 a.m. EST — Trading underway in the regular session.
- Shares of Venture Global climbed roughly 4% in morning trading following the LNG exporter’s upward revision of its 2025 earnings forecast
- The company highlighted volatile gas prices and a shortage of LNG vessels in the Atlantic basin
- Traders are eyeing winter freight costs alongside the upcoming U.S. storage data for new clues on Henry Hub
Shares of Venture Global (VG) climbed roughly 4% to $7.69 Tuesday morning. The U.S. liquefied natural gas exporter narrowed its profit forecast for 2025 and flagged transport bottlenecks in its latest update.
This goes beyond a single stock. LNG cargo economics can shift fast in winter, with freight turning into a genuine wildcard for U.S. exporters scrambling to move volumes as global price signals fluctuate.
Venture Global’s latest update highlights a key concern for investors: just how reliably new U.S. export capacity turns gas feedstock into shipped cargoes — and revenue — amid tight vessel availability and volatile pricing.
On Monday, the company slashed its full-year 2025 “core profit” forecast to between $6.18 billion and $6.24 billion, down from the previous range of $6.35 billion to $6.50 billion. This revision puts the forecast below Wall Street’s $6.36 billion estimate, according to LSEG data. Since its IPO just over a year ago, the stock has tumbled more than 70%. 1
Venture Global reported in an SEC filing that it shipped 128 LNG cargoes in Q4, totaling 478.3 TBtu, with an implied weighted average fixed liquefaction fee of $5.15 per MMBtu. The company attributed pressure on volumes and pricing to shifts in Henry Hub—the U.S. gas benchmark—plus fluctuations in international LNG prices and tight vessel availability across the Atlantic basin. 2
The company detailed shipments by facility: 38 cargoes left Calcasieu Pass at a fixed liquefaction fee of $2.01 per MMBtu, a figure adjusted for estimated arbitration reserves. Meanwhile, Plaquemines shipped 90 cargoes at $6.02 per MMBtu. It brought forward maintenance toward the end of the quarter and relied on both owned and chartered vessels to mitigate disruption. According to the filing, “Forward pricing… in February and March of 2026 have improved from year end levels.” 2
A “fixed liquefaction fee” refers to the cost of chilling natural gas into LNG and preparing it for export. It often offers a clearer view of project-level economics than the headline LNG prices. MMBtu stands for million British thermal units, a common heat measurement in gas trading.
The near-term outlook remains uncertain. Cargo margins can quickly shrink if freight markets tighten once more or if the gap between U.S. gas and overseas LNG prices tightens. Arbitration-related reserves add another layer of unpredictability, while shifts in delivery timing can move revenue across quarters.
Next, investors will eye Venture Global’s earnings for a deeper dive into fourth-quarter results. They’ll also watch the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly natural gas storage report due Jan. 15 for clues on near-term moves in Henry Hub.
