Sydney, Jan 14, 2026, 16:50 AEDT — Market closed.
- BHP shares ended up 1.1%, hitting A$48.12, close to their 52-week peak.
- China posted record iron ore imports in December alongside soaring steel exports, fueling the debate over demand.
- Investors await BHP’s operational review on Jan. 20 and new developments in Rio-Glencore discussions.
BHP Group Ltd shares ended Wednesday’s session in Sydney up 1.13%, closing at A$48.12 after hitting a high of A$48.24. The stock now trades just 0.8% shy of its 52-week peak at A$48.49, having gained roughly 3.5% over the last two sessions. 1
This move counts because BHP sets the tone for Australia’s major miners. It also offers a direct gauge of investor sentiment on China’s steel cycle ahead of the key 2026 production updates.
China’s latest trade figures gave markets a boost. December iron ore imports surged to 119.65 million metric tons, while steel exports climbed to 11.3 million tons—both hitting monthly records, according to customs data. Bai Xin, analyst at Horizon Insights, warned that rising seaborne supply combined with boosted shipments to China could “pile pressure on prices this year.” At the same time, Freight Investor Services analyst Pei Hao noted that China’s iron ore “demand is expected to remain stable” through 2026. 2
Deal chatter continues to ripple through the sector. Rio Tinto has brought in JPMorgan, Evercore, and Macquarie to advise on a possible Glencore acquisition, according to a source familiar with the matter who spoke to Reuters. 3
BHP faces the question of whether it will get pulled into the fray. Two sources close to the matter told Reuters this week that BHP plans to hold back during Rio’s negotiations and isn’t currently eyeing a bid for Glencore. Investors and bankers have flagged BHP as a potential spoiler, but the company doesn’t seem interested in Glencore’s trading division or coal assets. BHP declined to comment. 4
The consolidation story centers largely on copper — vital for power grids and data centres — and which player secures the most durable assets. It also highlights how swiftly “strategy” talk can translate into market moves, especially in a market starved for new company updates.
BHP’s next major event is coming up soon. The company will release its operational review, covering production and guidance, on Jan. 20 for the half-year ending Dec. 31, 2025. This is followed by the half-year financial results due Feb. 17, per its investor calendar. 5
Investors are zeroing in on iron ore volumes and costs, copper production, and any changes to capital spending or dividend guidance. Even a slight adjustment to forecasts can ripple quickly across the entire materials sector.
The upside scenario isn’t straightforward. China’s domestic steel demand remains weak, and Beijing’s export licensing plan for 2026 might throttle shipments of lower-end steel products, even if mills push for higher volumes. A drop in steel margins could swiftly dent iron ore demand.
Thursday’s session will see traders watching commodity prices closely, while also tracking headline risk from the Rio-Glencore saga. BHP and Rio Tinto are set to react sharply to any shifts in that deal story.
