New York, Jan 14, 2026, 10:05 EST — Regular session
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) edged up 0.5% to $423.69 in early New York trading Wednesday, tracking the latest rally in gold prices. This ETF aims to mirror the price of physical gold bullion, minus its fees. 1
Gold is carrying the weight today. Spot bullion climbed 1.1% to $4,635.99 an ounce, having earlier hit an all-time high of $4,641.40. Spot silver also surged, reaching a fresh peak at $92.23, according to Reuters. Gold, which doesn’t pay interest, usually attracts buyers when rate cuts are expected and market news gets turbulent.
Tuesday’s inflation data has thrust the rate debate back into focus. The consumer price index climbed 0.3% in December, while “core” inflation — excluding food and energy — came in at 2.6% year-over-year, slightly below expectations, according to a Reuters poll. “This should give the Fed some breathing room,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, in an email. 2
Wednesday’s data brought a mixed picture. U.S. retail sales climbed 0.6% in November, outpacing the expected 0.4% rise, according to the Commerce Department. The jump reflects delayed reports catching up after a 43-day government shutdown. Bank of America Securities highlighted a “K-shape” recovery, with spending gains led by higher-income households. 3
Producer prices nudged higher but didn’t quell the debate over easing. The producer price index, which tracks what businesses charge, climbed 0.2% in November and is up 3.0% from a year ago, according to the Labor Department. Gasoline prices surged, while trade margins tightened as companies absorbed some import tariffs. The report also pointed out that the Fed is widely expected to keep its benchmark rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range at the Jan. 27-28 meeting. 4
Fed officials are finely parsing timing in public remarks. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson described her “baseline outlook” as “pretty benign” and suggested “some modest further adjustments” to rates might come later this year—assuming inflation eases and the labor market holds steady. 5
Some are pushing back more bluntly. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told the New York Times he sees no “impetus to cut in January,” calling it “way too soon” for a rate cut. Still, he left open the possibility of easing later this year if unemployment spikes and inflation cools. 6
Wall Street economists are shifting their forecasts again. J.P. Morgan scrapped its January rate cut prediction, now eyeing a quarter-point hike only in 2027. Goldman Sachs and Barclays pushed their timing for cuts further out, to mid-to-late 2026, according to Reuters. J.P. Morgan noted in a recent memo, “If the labor market weakens again… the Fed could still ease later this year.” 7
Gold-linked products generally followed the metal’s rise. The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) climbed 0.6%, and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) also gained 0.6% in early trading. Silver, on the other hand, surged, with the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) jumping roughly 5% as silver heated up.
The trade is crowded at record highs and highly sensitive to abrupt moves in rates and the dollar. Any unexpected jump in inflation or a fresh surge in yields could quickly dull the appeal of gold-linked stocks and ETFs.
The next major event is the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Jan. 27-28, with the rate decision and Chair’s press conference scheduled for Jan. 28. The minutes will drop on Feb. 18. 8
