London, Jan 15, 2026, 06:53 GMT — Premarket action underway.
- Glencore closed Wednesday roughly 3% higher at 484.2 pence, buoyed by a surge in copper prices.
- A major Australian investor warned that Rio Tinto faces “a lot of questions” over any potential Glencore deal.
- Rio has until Feb. 5 to either solidify its offer under the UK takeover code or step back.
Glencore (GLEN.L) shares drew renewed attention Thursday as a prominent Australian investor challenged the value of Rio Tinto’s stake in the miner-trader, raising fresh doubts about its valuation ahead of London’s market open.
Timing is crucial here. Merger rumors have pushed Glencore’s shares around sharply, while Rio faces a strict deadline under the UK Takeover Code. The company must reveal by 5 p.m. London time on Feb. 5 whether it plans to launch an offer or walk away — essentially a “put up or shut up” moment. 1
The market is now fixated on that deadline. It dictates not just the chances of a deal but also whether any premium will surface, squeezing out the usual slow drip of hints and soft signals.
Mark Freeman, managing director at Australian Foundation Investment Company (AFIC), said Rio faces “a lot of questions” about how it plans to create value. He cautioned that big deals made at the peak of a cycle have often fallen short over time. “There are a lot of scars,” Freeman said, stressing that any deal must benefit Rio shareholders, not just expand the company. 2
Glencore ended Wednesday at 484.2 pence, gaining 2.98%. Miners powered the FTSE 100 to a fresh high, with copper prices hitting “a new peak,” Reuters reported. Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, highlighted political uncertainty as fueling safe-haven bets, noting that a “more interventionist Donald Trump” is driving money into gold. 3
Glencore described the discussions as preliminary, suggesting they might explore “a possible combination of some or all” parts of both companies’ operations, including an all-share merger. The current plan anticipates a deal structured as Rio acquiring Glencore through a court-approved “scheme of arrangement,” a method frequently used in UK transactions. 4
The resistance in Australia underscores a divide that’s drawing market attention. London investors—often holding stakes in both companies—tend to favor the deal’s rationale. But Down Under, where Rio is a staple in portfolios, shareholders are warier of the danger in paying up amid buoyant copper prices.
Plenty could still derail the deal. The companies haven’t agreed on terms yet, and the merger would need regulatory approval plus shareholder buy-in to show that a sprawling mix of mines, coal assets, and a sizable trading arm won’t erode value. A drop in copper prices could shift the whole calculation fast.
Traders will be on alert for new comments from either side and upcoming takeover-related filings in the next session. The key date remains Feb. 5, when Rio is required under UK rules to either make an offer or withdraw.
