London, January 16, 2026, 07:56 GMT — Premarket
Glencore shares (GLEN.L) opened cautiously Friday after a Reuters report suggested any deal with Rio Tinto might hinge on selling assets to appease Chinese regulators, with copper and iron ore marketing flagged as key issues. Barrenjoey analyst Glyn Lawcock said Beijing would likely use the review to “squeeze out assets.” On Thursday, Glencore closed at 491.0 pence, up 6.8 pence, or roughly 1.4%. 1
For investors, the China factor is crucial—it can influence both the timing and the price. Should regulators push for divestments, the deal moves beyond a simple scale play and turns into a negotiation over which assets remain within the merged entity.
This comes as Glencore’s shares now react more to merger speculation than to the performance of individual mines. The stock has attracted more short-term traders, making even minor news trigger significant price swings.
Deal chatter has pushed out a string of disclosures under the UK Takeover Code. Societe Generale’s latest Form 8.3 reveals it held a 1.60% stake in Glencore shares and had short positions totaling 1.16% as of Jan. 14. 2
Form 8.3 offers a public glimpse of long and short positions once an “offer period” kicks off. While the filings can highlight hedging and arbitrage moves, they don’t reveal who’s steering discussions behind the scenes.
Glencore cautioned that there’s no guarantee any deal terms will be finalized. By 5 p.m. London time on Feb. 5, Rio must either declare a firm bid or confirm it’s not moving forward, unless the Takeover Panel grants more time. 3
For now, the deadline centers attention on structure just as much as valuation — what coal, trading, and copper growth look like if talks progress further. With scant new company data this morning, sentiment might carry the day.
But the trade runs both ways. Should talks falter or divestment demands prove tougher than anticipated, Glencore’s shares might surrender gains fast as merger-related bets unwind.
Investors will get concrete data shortly to reset their forecasts. Glencore plans to release its 2025 full-year production report on Jan. 29, followed by full-year financial results on Feb. 18, accompanied by a results-day webcast. 4
