Sydney, January 18, 2026, 17:08 AEDT — The market has closed.
BHP Group Ltd shares closed Friday down 0.8% at A$48.99, yet remained roughly 3.5% higher than the previous week, hovering near a 52-week peak ahead of a crucial company update.
As the ASX remains closed over the weekend, focus shifts to Tuesday’s “operational review” — BHP’s routine production and sales report — looking for clues on whether volumes or costs are veering off track ahead of February’s earnings.
This matters since BHP is frequently viewed as a direct play on iron ore and copper, both of which have seen volatile prices. Even a slight shift in output forecasts or unit costs can quickly alter dividend expectations.
Iron ore futures edged lower on Friday, weighed down by soaring prices and squeezed steelmaking margins that dampened demand in China, Reuters reported. The May contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange slipped 0.5%, while Singapore’s key February contract also retreated. Mysteel data revealed iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports climbed to a record high.
Copper, another key driver for global miners, also slipped. The London Metal Exchange’s three-month copper price closed at $12,803 a tonne, falling 2.3% on a day-delayed basis.
Copper prices remain elevated. Reuters Breakingviews reported that prices climbed above $13,000 a tonne on Thursday, driven by pre-tariff stockpiling and supply disruptions at key producers. However, they cautioned these surges may be short-lived. Morgan Stanley strategist Amy Gower highlighted permitting delays that can drag on for more than ten years.
Talk of a deal has added tension. A potential Rio Tinto-Glencore merger might require asset sales to gain China’s green light. “China will see this as an opportunity to squeeze out assets,” said Glyn Lawcock, an analyst at Barrenjoey in Sydney, in comments to Reuters. Mark Kelly, CEO of advisory firm MKI Global Partners, described the deal as “a long, complicated” regulatory battle. Reuters
BHP’s schedule highlights two key dates: the operational review will drop around 8:30 a.m. Melbourne time on January 20, with half-year results set for about 8:00 a.m. on February 17.
But the setup works both ways. Should iron ore continue to drop amid soft steel demand, or if BHP signals rising costs or operational hiccups, the stock could pull back sharply — particularly with prices near recent peaks.
Trading kicks off again Monday, with investors focused first on commodity price shifts. All eyes then turn to Tuesday’s operational review, looking for updates on production, costs, and any shifts in company tone.
