Sydney, Jan 18, 2026, 17:27 AEDT — The market has closed for the day.
- ANZ shares ended Friday at A$37.52, gaining 0.54%
- Traders turn their attention to Australia’s jobs data on Jan 22 and inflation figures due Jan 28
- The RBA decision on Feb 3 looms as the next major rate test for bank stocks
ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ.AX) ended Friday’s session at A$37.52, gaining 0.54%. That pushed its weekly advance to around 5.8% and marks a roughly 3% increase for the stock year-to-date in 2026. 1
This shift is significant as the market returns to pricing Australian banks around the interest-rate outlook. A few crucial data releases this week could quickly reshape expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next moves, which usually hits bank shares hard and fast.
For lenders such as ANZ, the impact cuts both ways. Rising rates may boost net interest margin — the difference between what banks earn on loans versus what they pay to fund them — yet they also risk pressuring borrowers and increasing bad debts if growth falters.
ANZ noted a stronger session for Australian stocks on Friday, with the S&P/ASX 200 closing 0.48% higher at 8,903.9. Financial shares drove the advance. 2
The RBA’s cash rate target currently stands at 3.60%, with the central bank set to deliver its next update on Feb. 3, following the policy meeting on Feb. 2–3. Investors are also focused on inflation data, as the RBA has flagged its next inflation report for Jan. 28. 3
Australia’s labour force data drops Jan. 22, marking the first major test this week. The Australian Bureau of Statistics will unveil December 2025 figures. In November, the unemployment rate stood at 4.3%, while participation hit 66.7%. 4
Westpac economists forecast a 40,000 gain in December jobs and predict the unemployment rate will “round up” to 4.4%. They caution that holiday-season swings might cloud the picture of a labour market they describe as “gradually softening.” 5
Inflation remains a key factor. The ABS is set to release its December 2025 CPI data on Jan. 28. The headline CPI climbed 3.4% over the year to November, with trimmed mean inflation—excluding extreme price changes—at 3.2%. 6
For ANZ and other major banks, the data flow weighs heavily on both credit quality and margins. A strong jobs report and persistent inflation might push rate-hike expectations into February; weaker numbers could ease those bets and cool the trade.
Execution poses another risk, one that doesn’t shift in neat daily increments. Under CEO Nuno Matos, ANZ has been revamping its operations after suspending the remaining A$800 million of a share buyback last year to shore up cash and focus on cost-cutting goals. “The opportunities to rationalise the company in the first year are so obvious,” Matos said during an investor briefing at the time. 7
Trading picks up Monday, with investors eyeing Thursday’s labour force data (Jan. 22) and the CPI report (Jan. 28). The RBA decision on Feb. 3 will follow those closely.
