London, Jan 18, 2026, 08:00 GMT — Market closed.
- Glencore dropped 2.53% to 478.60p on Friday, dragged lower alongside other miners as copper prices fell.
- New disclosures under the UK Takeover Code revealed Harris Associates holding 1.13%, while BlackRock’s stake stood at 7.14%.
- With the Feb. 5 takeover deadline approaching, investors are watching copper prices closely as Rio Tinto considers its next move.
Glencore (GLEN.L) ended Friday down 2.53% at 478.60 pence, swinging between a low of 475.75 and a high of 488.45 during the session. The stock was among the larger decliners in London’s mining sector, weighed down by a drop in copper prices and weaker demand cues from China. 1
As the market closes for the weekend, the key question is what will dominate Monday: the metal tape or the takeover tape. For Glencore, it’s often a mix of both—and they don’t always line up.
Speculation around the deal has thrust the stock into an unusual spotlight. Even without fresh updates from the companies, position disclosures and dealing notices—the paperwork tied to UK takeover rules—can shift focus sharply.
Harris Associates L.P. reported holding 132,884,582 shares of Glencore, equivalent to 1.13%, as of January 15, according to a regulatory filing on Friday. The stake was disclosed via a Form 8.3, a requirement under the Takeover Code for investors owning 1% or more during an offer period. 2
On Friday, BlackRock, Inc. filed a Form 8.3 revealing a 7.14% stake in Glencore shares, along with short positions and derivatives exposure. The filing also noted disclosures related to Rio Tinto, underscoring how the rules can require transparency from both sides when a potential share offer is underway. 3
Analysts and lawyers speaking to Reuters say a Rio Tinto-Glencore merger would require a green light from China, potentially with forced asset divestments attached, considering China’s status as the largest buyer of key commodities. “China will see this as an opportunity to squeeze out assets,” noted Glyn Lawcock, an analyst at Barrenjoey in Sydney. 4
The timeline is closing in. Rio must submit a bid for Glencore by Feb. 5 under UK takeover rules, Reuters Breakingviews reported. This deadline adds immediate pressure, even if both firms keep a low profile day-to-day. 5
Copper is still a live wire. Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators told exchanges like the Shanghai Futures Exchange to pull servers used by high-frequency traders—those fast, automated firms known for boosting short-term volatility—as they try to calm a market that’s been on edge. 6
Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets, noted that China’s clampdown “has knocked prices down from record highs,” directly impacting mining stocks. Glencore was one of the names that took a hit as the sector pulled back. 7
RBC Capital Markets analyst Ben Davis told The Northern Miner investors are now leaning toward an all-share deal, driven by copper supply concerns. “Securing copper – not generating near-term value – is the main reason behind the transaction,” he said. 8
But two clear risks loom. Copper prices could fall further if demand from China softens more. And takeover speculation might die down fast without a solid bid — or if regulatory hurdles complicate the deal’s economics.
Traders will focus on copper prices Monday morning and closely follow any new Takeover Code updates related to the Rio-Glencore deal. Looking further ahead, Glencore plans to release its full-year production report on Jan. 29, with 2025 results scheduled for Feb. 18. 9
