London, Jan 18, 2026, 08:11 GMT — Market closed.
- Rio Tinto (RIO.L) ended Friday down 1.87% at 6,347 pence.
- Copper-linked miners weakened on China demand worries, keeping pressure on the sector.
- Focus turns to Rio’s Jan. 21 quarterly operations update and a Feb. 5 takeover-code deadline tied to Glencore talks.
Rio Tinto’s London-listed shares finished Friday down 1.87% at 6,347 pence, with trading volume above its recent average as the stock eased back from a 52-week high hit a day earlier. 1
The wider market offered little cover. The FTSE 100 ended almost flat, while miners led the day’s losers as investors fretted about weakening copper demand from top consumer China. 2
That matters now because Rio’s share price has become a quick read-through on two things at once: the day-to-day pulse of industrial metals, and the cost of big corporate bets. Copper is used in power networks and electric vehicles, and talk of more supply discipline can lift sentiment fast — until it doesn’t.
Deal speculation keeps returning to the same point. In a Jan. 8 statement, Rio confirmed preliminary discussions with Glencore and said any transaction was expected to be structured as Rio acquiring Glencore via a UK court-approved “scheme of arrangement”, a common takeover route in Britain. Rio said it has until 5 p.m. London time on Feb. 5 to announce a firm intention to make an offer or say it does not intend to bid. 3
Any merger path would still run through Beijing. Analysts and lawyers told Reuters that China’s antitrust regulator could focus on concentration in copper production and marketing as well as iron ore marketing, and could press for asset sales; “China will see this as an opportunity to squeeze out assets,” said Glyn Lawcock at Barrenjoey. MKI Global Partners CEO Mark Kelly also warned it could be “a long, complicated deal,” and Reuters said both miners declined to comment when asked. 4
The paperwork is starting to follow the headlines. BlackRock said in a Form 8.3 dealing disclosure — a Takeover Code filing used during an offer period by investors with 1% or more — that it was interested in about 8.40% of Rio Tinto plc shares and was also making disclosures in respect of Glencore. 5
But the next week does not have to be about M&A. If copper demand worries in China deepen, miners can get hit before anyone has time to argue about long-term strategy, and Rio has plenty of direct exposure to that mood.
For Monday’s session, traders will be watching the tone in base metals and any fresh deal-related disclosures, while Rio’s own calendar points to a near-term data point: its 2025 fourth-quarter operations review is due on Jan. 21, with annual results scheduled for Feb. 19. 6
A filing on the Australian exchange lays out the shareholder timetable around that results date, including the final dividend process. It shows Feb. 19 as the 2025 full-year results and final dividend date, with the shares due to trade ex-dividend on March 5, followed by a March 6 record date and an April 23 payment date — “ex-dividend” being the first day a buyer no longer qualifies for the payout.
The bigger clock, though, sits at Feb. 5, 5 p.m. in London. That is when Rio must either firm up an offer for Glencore or step back, and the stock is likely to keep reacting to copper and deal headlines until the deadline bites.
