NEW YORK, Jan 18, 2026, 05:24 EST — Market closed
Shares of BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. slipped 5 cents, or 0.8%, ending Friday at $6.12. The stock fluctuated between $6.05 and $6.35, with about 92 million shares changing hands.
The decline hits at a strange time for the small-cap AI and defense contractor, with U.S. markets closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day and reopening Tuesday. Holiday pauses often thin out trading, causing volatile stocks to swing more sharply than the news behind them. 1
Investors are considering a shareholder proposal to double BigBear.ai’s authorized common stock from 500 million to 1 billion shares, expanding the company’s capacity to issue shares down the line. CEO Kevin McAleenan emphasized that approval “would not result in the immediate issuance of new shares,” presenting it as a strategic move to enable future acquisitions, investments, and financing. 2
Earlier this month, BigBear.ai announced that holders fully converted its $125 million 6.00% convertible senior secured notes due 2029 into common stock. This move wiped out that debt and trimmed total note-related obligations to $17 million, now due in December 2026. 3
A Jan. 2 filing detailed the process: the company announced it had called the notes for redemption, setting a Jan. 16 deadline for any notes not converted to be redeemed. It also outlined conversion rates, which may increase during an early conversion window. 4
In a Jan. 2 statement, BigBear.ai announced the conversion will lead to the issuance of about 38 million shares, which it said are already set aside for this move. McAleenan noted the debt cut would “improve our financial flexibility.” 5
Beyond its balance sheet, the company is pushing to expand its secure generative AI offering. BigBear.ai announced it closed a $250 million deal to acquire Ask Sage, which reportedly serves over 100,000 users within 16,000 government teams. McAleenan called the acquisition a “major milestone” in building a secure, integrated platform. 6
BigBear.ai has also pushed into commercial ventures alongside its government projects. The company announced a partnership with the Kraft Group, which includes a deal with International Forest Products focused on boosting supply-chain transparency. They’ve also inked a marketing partnership connected to the New England Patriots. COO Carl Napoletano described the effort as turning “advanced AI” into a real operational edge. Kraft Group CIO Michael Israel said they’re taking a “deliberate approach” to evaluating emerging tech. 7
The stock’s wild volume and daily swings have attracted short sellers as well. Short interest hit around 107.4 million shares, or about 24.7% of the float, by Dec. 31, per MarketBeat. (Short interest reflects shares sold by investors betting on a price drop; it can amplify moves when those traders scramble to buy back stock.) 8
But the setup is double-edged. While converting debt and cutting interest payments can boost cash flow eventually, issuing more shares—whether through conversions or new offerings—risks diluting current shareholders. That pressure might hit the stock if investors factor it in ahead of time. Plus, integration challenges with Ask Sage and the unpredictable pace of government contracts remain concerns.
The next catalyst is looming. BigBear.ai has informed shareholders they have until 11:59 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jan. 21, to cast their votes before a reconvened special meeting on Thursday, Jan. 22. Traders will focus on the vote results and any hints from the company about when it might tap into additional share capacity. 9
