Sydney, Jan 19, 2026, 16:51 AEDT — The market has closed.
- Fortescue dropped close to 2% following a volatile session, underperforming its larger iron ore rivals.
- Iron ore futures dropped to their lowest in two weeks amid new evidence of a slowdown in China’s property sector.
- JPMorgan’s downgrade and an upcoming quarterly report are the key events to watch this week.
Fortescue (FMG.AX) shares slipped 1.9% to close at A$22.39 on Monday, moving between A$22.12 and A$22.86 during the session with roughly 6.7 million shares changing hands. 1
The move stood out as iron ore prices — the group’s key revenue source — slipped again, dragged down by China’s sluggish property sector. On China’s Dalian exchange, iron ore futures hit two-week lows, with the most-active May contract falling 2.8% to 792 yuan a tonne. Meanwhile, the benchmark February contract in Singapore dropped 1.6% to $104.60 a tonne, according to a Reuters report. 2
Broker chatter intensified as JPMorgan lowered its rating on Fortescue, shifting from overweight to underweight. The bank also reduced its target price to A$19.75 from A$21.20, Market Index reported. 3
Valuation remains a hot topic. Morningstar analyst Jon Mills pegged Fortescue’s fair value at A$16.60, noting that a number of big iron ore players appear “overvalued,” despite factoring in higher near-term commodity forecasts. 4
Fortescue’s decline caught attention during the session. BHP slipped 0.35% to close at A$48.82, whereas Rio Tinto gained roughly 0.9%, finishing at A$149.65, up from Friday’s close. 5
Supply signals are under close scrutiny. China’s port inventories have climbed for weeks, and the first shipment from Guinea’s Simandou mine has docked, fueling oversupply concerns. “Chinese iron ore port inventory is set to balloon further … bad news for iron ore,” said Westpac’s Robert Rennie. According to the same report, BHP, Rio, and Fortescue are set to release operational updates this week. 6
The situation could turn quickly. If iron ore prices rebound—driven by restocking or new policy moves in China—it would ease pressure on miners. Fortescue, in particular, could stabilize with a solid quarter on costs and shipments.
Fortescue’s December 2025 quarterly production update lands on Jan. 22, with the FY26 half-year results due Feb. 25. These reports will shape investor moves heading into the next ASX session and beyond. 7
