TORONTO, Jan 19, 2026, 11:19 EST
Global investment in space technology is set to climb again in 2026 after a record year, driven by defense-linked satellite systems and launch capacity, investment firm Seraphim Space said on Monday. Private investment rose 48% in 2025 to $12.4 billion, the firm said, and “a potential SpaceX IPO could act as a powerful catalyst,” said Seraphim Space investment analyst Lucas Bishop. The update lands as Canada’s MDA Space jumped 14.5% on Friday after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock, a move that helped keep Toronto’s main index near record levels. 1
Morgan Stanley’s space team, led by analyst Kristine Liwag, has an “attractive” view on the sector for 2026, TipRanks reported, pointing to tailwinds that it says should carry over from last year. Gains are expected to be “fueled by higher launch cadences, new product intros, policy support & market maturation,” Liwag wrote, flagging Rocket Lab (RKLB), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) and Intuitive Machines (LUNR). 2
The bank upgraded Rocket Lab and MDA Space (MDA.TO) to “overweight” — Wall Street shorthand for expecting outperformance — and raised its Rocket Lab price target to $105 from $67, Investing.com reported. Liwag called 2025 “a banner year” for the space industry and said Rocket Lab could complete its first Neutron launch in early 2026 while lifting Electron’s launch cadence; for MDA, the bank lifted its target to C$46 from C$32. 3
Canadian stocks were softer on Monday morning after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on eight European countries, with the benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index down 0.1% by 10:12 a.m. ET, Reuters reported. “It’s not surprising to see volatility,” said Josh Sheluk, a portfolio manager at Verecan Capital Management, while volumes were expected to be lighter with U.S. markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. 4
MDA has also been leaning harder into defense-linked work. The company said earlier this month it received an indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract — an umbrella deal that allows agencies to issue task orders over time — from the U.S. Missile Defense Agency for its SHIELD program. “Our selection for the Missile Defense Agency SHIELD IDIQ is a recognition of the technology, talent and expertise MDA Space offers,” CEO Mike Greenley said. 5
MDA’s shares rose 6.6% on Jan. 8 after the company said it was selected by the Missile Defense Agency for SHIELD, Reuters reported at the time. 6
MDA is a space mission partner spanning satellite systems, robotics and space operations, and geointelligence, according to Reuters company data. Its customers range across commercial and government space programs. 7
But the trade can turn quickly in a sector still tied to big contract wins and schedule risk. Morgan Stanley noted MDA shares had fallen about 28% since EchoStar scrapped a roughly $1.3 billion “direct-to-device” satellite project in late 2025 — a setback for a market that aims to connect phones directly to satellites — even as the bank argued MDA trades at a steep valuation discount to peers and has a “bright catalyst path” this year. 8
For investors, the next tests are plain: launches that happen when promised, defense task orders that convert from eligibility to revenue, and whether the IPO window opens wider for space companies beyond a small set of public names.
