Sydney, January 20, 2026, 17:06 AEDT — Market closed
- BHP shares fell roughly 2% following the miner’s warning of weaker realised iron ore prices and a higher cost projection for its Jansen Stage 1 potash project
- The company maintained its full-year iron ore forecast but raised its copper outlook
- Investors are focusing on China’s iron ore contract negotiations and February results for clearer insights into pricing and costs
BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares finished Tuesday down 2%, slipping to A$47.78. The miner cited pricing pressure linked to ongoing iron ore contract negotiations in China and announced an increased budget for its Jansen Stage 1 potash project in Canada. 1
The timing feels off. Iron ore remains the backbone of BHP’s cash flow, even as the company pushes to expand its potash and copper earnings. All this, while trying to keep costs in check.
China finds itself at the heart of both trends. Its crude steel production dropped to 960.81 million metric tons in 2025, hitting the lowest level since 2018. Analysts are forecasting a further dip in 2026, fueling uncertainty around iron ore demand and prices. 2
BHP confirmed it has agreed to reduced prices on certain iron ore shipments while hashing out 2026 supply deals with China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), the state-backed purchaser pressing for greater influence over pricing. The “realised price” refers to what the miner effectively pockets after applying discounts and contract specifics, rather than the headline index.
The company posted record iron ore output of 146.6 million metric tons from its Western Australia operations in the first half. It maintained its full-year iron ore guidance at 284 million to 296 million tons and raised its copper production forecast to 1.9 million to 2.0 million tons. RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker noted that CMRG’s restrictions might “tighten spot market availability,” potentially boosting the benchmark price, but also warned this could mean steeper discounts for BHP. 3
BHP raised its total investment forecast for Jansen Stage 1 potash project to $8.4 billion, up from the previous $7.0 billion to $7.4 billion range, due to revised construction hours and material costs. The first production is now slated for mid-2027. According to the company, Stage 1 is roughly 75% complete. Brandon Craig, president of BHP Americas, described Jansen as “a long-life, low-cost, expandable asset” key to BHP’s growth strategy. 4
Chief executive Mike Henry highlighted strong results from BHP’s core assets as the company approaches the wet season in Western Australia. He said it had “delivered another half of very strong performance” and set itself up for a quarter that could disrupt shipments. 5
The sell-off spread across the board. Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, noted that iron ore futures in Asia dropped 0.87% to $103.75. Rio Tinto shares fell 1.66%, while Fortescue slipped 0.74%, dragging materials stocks lower. 6
The catch is obvious. Should the China talks stall or product restrictions ramp up, the discount to benchmark prices might widen, throwing flows off balance—even if headline iron ore prices stay steady. Jansen also faces risks from rising labor and materials costs, meaning another cost reset could challenge BHP’s claim that potash will diversify earnings without cutting into returns.
Traders will be closely watching iron ore futures overnight to see if they hold steady, and whether Tuesday’s update is shrugged off as a brief pause or signals a bigger shift in market expectations. The next major event is BHP’s half-year results on Feb. 17, where investors expect more clarity on realised prices, costs, and capital discipline. 7
