SYDNEY, Jan 20, 2026, 17:07 AEDT — Trading in after-hours session
Fortescue Ltd (FMG.AX) shares edged down 0.6% to A$22.26 on Tuesday, adding to Monday’s 1.9% fall. The iron ore producer tracked weaker bulk commodity trends by the close. Throughout the session, prices swung between A$22.07 and A$22.43, data showed. 1
This change matters because Fortescue’s profits closely follow iron ore prices, with the market still assessing China’s steel and property sectors. Traders are also bracing for fresh earnings reports coming later this week.
Australian shares dipped, with the S&P/ASX 200 dropping 0.66% by the close in Sydney. The index felt pressure from materials, metals, and mining sectors, which dragged it lower. 2
Iron ore futures dropped to a two-week low on Monday after new data from China underscored ongoing strain in its property sector, a major driver of steel demand. The May contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange slipped 2.58%, closing at 794 yuan a tonne. Over in Singapore, the February benchmark eased 1.54% to $104.7 a tonne. 3
China’s steel outlook for 2025 has raised fresh demand worries. Crude steel output fell 4.4% from 2024, down to 960.81 million metric tons—the lowest level in seven years—even as steel exports surged to a record over 119 million tons, Reuters reports. 4
Supply worries are back. China just received its first iron ore shipment from Guinea’s Simandou mine, Reuters reported. Beijing has invested heavily in Simandou to reduce its dependence on Australian and Brazilian sources, which currently supply about 80% of its imports. The mine is targeting an annual output of 120 million tons and delivers higher-grade ore with around 65% iron content, according to the report. 5
Broker sentiment on specific stocks is turning cautious. MarketIndex reports that JPMorgan dropped Fortescue from “overweight” to “underweight,” cutting its price target to A$19.75 from A$21.20. The “underweight” tag signals expectations the stock will lag behind peers or the wider market. 6
Peers have highlighted pricing pressure in China’s annual supply talks. BHP confirmed it accepted lower prices on some iron ore contracts with China Mineral Resources Group, flagging potential hits to its realised price. RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker noted that tighter restrictions could limit spot supply, possibly supporting index prices even as discounts rise. BHP shares dropped about 2% on Tuesday, Reuters reported. 7
That said, the tape can turn on a dime. A rebound in iron ore futures or signs that Beijing is ramping up property support would likely lift sentiment among miners. But a steeper fall in construction demand or stricter supply contract terms could drag it down.
Fortescue faces its next big milestone with the December 2025 quarterly production report due Jan. 22, then the half-year results landing Feb. 25, according to the company’s investor calendar. Traders will zero in on shipments, realised prices, and costs for clues on where iron ore is headed as 2026 kicks off. 8
