NEW YORK, Jan 20, 2026, 09:07 EST
- Gold and silver surged to new highs amid market jitters over tariff threats linked to Greenland
- Ray Dalio’s 2025 prediction of a “breakdown of the monetary order” is making waves again in market talk
- Analysts point to trade policy and interest rate uncertainty as the main factors fueling the rush into safe-haven assets
Gold jumped above $4,700 an ounce Tuesday, driven by a flight to safety following fresh U.S. tariff threats. The rally also brought Ray Dalio’s cautionary note back into focus—he warned the global financial system is edging toward a “new monetary order.”
The timing is crucial since the tariff dispute isn’t theoretical—it’s hitting prices right now. This pressure is rattling confidence in U.S. policy at a moment when investors are trying to figure out the Federal Reserve’s next move.
Dalio’s remarks hit harder since they question the U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency — the main currency central banks stockpile and the one still dominating global trade settlements. The term “de-dollarization,” shorthand for moves to cut dependence on the greenback, usually gains traction amid simultaneous trade tensions and geopolitical strains.
Spot gold climbed 1.2% to $4,726.86 an ounce by 1131 GMT, after briefly touching $4,737.10. Silver also hit a fresh record before pulling back, Reuters reported. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the market seems to be “targeting a price of $5,000/oz.” Reuters added that traders are keeping an eye on a Supreme Court case tied to Trump’s attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a move that could raise concerns about central bank independence. 1
Gold and silver hit record highs on Monday as the dollar weakened and investors sought other safe havens like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, Reuters reported. Linh Tran, senior market analyst at XS.com, called it “gold once again emerging as the preferred choice.” Citi Research set near-term targets at $5,000 for gold and $100 for silver. Meanwhile, money markets are betting on at least two 25-basis-point Fed cuts this year (a basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point). 2
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, sounded the alarm in an April 2025 NBC interview about a “breaking down of the monetary order,” Livemint reports. He described tariffs as “rocks thrown into the production system” and slammed Trump’s tactics as “very disruptive” for sparking “global conflict.” Dalio also warned the next downturn might be worse than a typical recession. 3
That message isn’t a dated forecast. Think of it as a stress-test scenario: what if politics keeps disrupting bonds, currencies, and trade flows?
The warning has been making rounds again on markets and crypto-focused platforms, injecting fresh noise into an already volatile tape. 4
Some analysts expect the tariff threats to soften during negotiations. Wedbush’s Dan Ives called it “bark will be worse than the bite,” with markets eyeing the World Economic Forum in Davos and early moves ahead of trade talks. 5
The big question about the “reserve currency” rarely hinges on one news cycle. Despite gold’s sharp rally, the dollar remains supported by the depth of U.S. financial markets and a global payments network centered on it. A quick easing of tariffs or persistently high U.S. rates could just as quickly slow the surge into non-yielding gold.
