New York, Jan 20, 2026, 20:41 EST — Market closed.
- Merck shares edged higher, closing 0.6% up at $109.45, bucking the broader U.S. stock decline.
- Fresh five-year results revealed Moderna’s personalized melanoma vaccine combined with Keytruda maintained a 49% cut in the risk of recurrence or death.
- Investors are zeroing in on the timing of Phase 3 trials and Merck’s earnings call on Feb. 3 for fresh updates.
Merck & Co’s stock ended Tuesday 0.57% higher, closing at $109.45, supported by long-term data on a personalized melanoma vaccine it’s working on with Moderna, which helped steady investor sentiment as the session wrapped up. 1
The update is crucial as Merck aims to expand its growth story beyond Keytruda, its best-selling cancer drug, ahead of competition and cheaper alternatives hitting the market later this decade. The company recently told investors it expects new growth drivers to generate up to $70 billion in revenue by the mid-2030s. 2
Merck managed to edge higher despite a tough session for risk assets. The S&P 500 dropped 2.06%, while the Nasdaq slid 2.39%, as investors sought refuge in safer parts of the market. 3
In a planned five-year follow-up from a Phase 2b trial involving high-risk stage III/IV melanoma patients post-surgery, intismeran autogene (also called mRNA-4157 or V940) combined with Keytruda lowered the risk of recurrence or death by 49% compared to Keytruda alone, the companies reported. Recurrence-free survival tracks how long patients remain cancer-free. 4
The shot is tailored to each patient’s tumor mutations, aiming to prime immune cells to target and destroy cancer cells. Keytruda, an anti-PD-1 drug, works alongside by lifting the brakes on the immune system’s response.
Analysts say the durability adds weight but doesn’t close the case. “If Moderna can replicate this 49% risk reduction in phase 3, that’s a positive sign,” Morningstar’s Karen Andersen noted. UBS’s Michael Yee called the five-year data encouraging but emphasized the need for late-stage trial confirmation. Jefferies analysts estimate pricing similar to Keytruda—around $200,000—and see potential for multi-billion-dollar sales in melanoma if the results hold. 5
Moderna’s Kyle Holen described “today’s results” as evidence of the combo’s “potential of a prolonged benefit.” Merck’s Dr. Marjorie Green called the five-year follow-up “encouraging” and said the partners aim to gather late-stage data across several tumor types. 6
Timing is now the key question for traders. The larger Phase 3 trial in adjuvant melanoma has reached full enrollment. The program is also advancing through more late-stage trials in lung cancer, while earlier studies in other tumor types continue, industry sources report. 7
Guardant Health dropped another oncology-related update Monday, revealing a multi-year deal with Merck. The partnership will see Merck incorporate Guardant’s liquid and tissue biopsy tests into their clinical trials, aiming to develop companion diagnostics—tests that pinpoint which patients stand to benefit from certain drugs. The plan also includes global commercialization. Guardant co-CEO Helmy Eltoukhy said the aim is to deliver the “molecular clarity needed to reach the right patients.” 8
The broader competitive push is clear: Merck is doubling down on combination therapies and biomarker-driven development as the oncology field grows increasingly crowded, facing off against other checkpoint inhibitors like Bristol Myers Squibb’s Opdivo in melanoma.
The risk scenario is clear as well. The five-year data stems from a mid-stage trial, while Phase 3 studies tend to be larger and often tougher. A personalized method also sparks practical concerns—manufacturing challenges, turnaround times, reimbursement issues, and whether doctors will adopt it widely beyond clinical trials.
Investors are turning their attention to Merck’s earnings call on Feb. 3 for the fourth quarter and full year 2025. Management usually uses this event to update guidance and share timelines for the oncology pipeline, including the pace at which the vaccine program might advance from data collection to regulatory filings. 9
