Sydney, Jan 21, 2026, 21:56 AEDT — The market has closed.
Australia’s ASX 200 slipped 33 points, or 0.37%, to 8,782.9 on Wednesday, marking its third consecutive drop as investors moved away from riskier assets. Gold prices stayed firm above $US4,870 an ounce, buoying the materials sector, while financial stocks dragged lower. 1
The drop is significant as the market juggles two tensions: domestic rate pressure and tariff-fueled swings overseas. When these forces clash, banks and property stocks tend to take the initial hit, with miners and gold companies often cushioning the blow.
Financials dropped 1.6%, with Commonwealth Bank hitting its lowest level since April 2025, pushing the ASX 200 to its weakest close since January 12. Real estate fell 1.6%, while consumer discretionary slid 2.1%. Miners, however, capped the day at a record high, led by Rio Tinto’s 2.6% surge. Interest-rate swaps, which traders use to gauge the policy outlook, showed a 26.5% chance of a quarter-point hike at the RBA’s February 3 meeting. Vantage Markets analyst Hebe Chen noted the market “needs clearer evidence that inflation is decisively cooling” before a sustained rebound can take hold. 2
Rio reported Pilbara iron ore shipments climbed 7% to 91.3 million metric tons in the December quarter, beating Visible Alpha’s 88.2 million-ton forecast. This marks a strong debut for CEO Simon Trott. Barrenjoey analyst Glyn Lawcock described the quarter as “solid,” but stressed the challenge now lies in delivering on promised cost reductions. Rio’s full-year results are set for release on Feb. 19. Meanwhile, under UK takeover rules, Rio has until Feb. 5 to either make a formal bid for Glencore or step back, following confirmation of ongoing merger talks. 3
Rival BHP revealed it accepted lower prices on certain iron ore shipments amid talks over a 2026 supply deal with China’s state buyer. The miner also raised its forecast for Jansen potash project costs in Canada to $8.4 billion, up from $7.0-$7.4 billion. RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker noted the restrictions will probably “tighten spot availability,” even as discounts deepen on some cargoes. BHP’s shares dipped about 2% Tuesday; the company will release half-year results on Feb. 17. 4
Gold miners kept their rally going as bullion hovered near record levels. Evolution Mining surged as much as 9.18% to a new high of A$14.750, boosted by a stronger second-quarter performance. The company reported 191,000 ounces produced in the December quarter, up from 174,000 the previous period, driven by better output at its Cowal mine in New South Wales. Jefferies noted that the production “exceeded our expectations” and highlighted how soaring gold prices are bolstering Evolution’s balance sheet. 5
Risk appetite turned sharply negative following Wall Street’s plunge Tuesday, spurred by President Donald Trump’s threat of fresh tariffs targeting eight European nations amid rising tensions over his bid to claim Greenland. The S&P 500 slid 2.1%, marking its largest single-day drop since October, with tech shares leading the decline. 6
Europe’s STOXX 600 slipped 0.3% on Wednesday. Banks and financial services dropped around 1% apiece as traders weighed tariff concerns ahead of Trump’s World Economic Forum speech in Davos. Oliver Jones from Rathbones warned that zeroing in too much on Trump’s daily remarks was “dangerous.” 7
But the market’s divide can shift quickly. Should jobs or inflation come in hotter than expected, rate forecasts might climb once more, keeping banks and property sectors under strain. At the same time, any drop in bullion prices would put gold miners to the test.
Coming up, the ABS labour force report for December 2025 drops at 11:30 a.m. AEDT this Thursday. Then, the December-quarter CPI arrives Wednesday, Jan. 28. The RBA’s next policy meeting is set for Feb. 2–3, marking the next major trigger for rate-sensitive ASX sectors. 8
