New York, Jan 21, 2026, 13:51 EST — Regular session.
- Gold surged past $4,800 an ounce, hitting a new record amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
- Traders blamed tariff threats and changing rate expectations for driving the moves.
- Investors are focused on upcoming policy updates and central bank cues.
Gold surged past $4,800 an ounce on Wednesday, extending a rally fueled by geopolitical tensions linked to Greenland. Spot gold climbed 1.6% to $4,838.91 per ounce by 11:30 a.m. ET, having hit an intraday high of $4,887.82. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures gained 1.7%, trading at $4,844.20. 1
The move matters because it triggered a sharp selloff in U.S. assets, dragging the dollar lower and rattling stocks. On Tuesday, the dollar index — which tracks the greenback against six major currencies — tumbled as much as 0.7%, marking its largest single-day drop since mid-December. “Fears of prolonged uncertainty, strained alliances, a loss of confidence in U.S. leadership, potential retaliation and an acceleration of de-dollarisation trends,” fueled the shift, said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG. 2
Gold is seen as a safe-haven asset—something investors turn to for protection rather than profit. It also tends to gain appeal when traders anticipate falling interest rates, since bullion is “non-yielding” and doesn’t pay any interest.
“There’s some fear of missing out on this trade,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, as investors adjusted following President Donald Trump’s remarks in Davos that he would not deploy military force to acquire Greenland. 3
Tuesday’s rally laid the groundwork. Spot gold climbed roughly 2% to $4,757.33 by 1:52 p.m. ET after briefly hitting $4,765.93. Meanwhile, February futures closed up 3.7% at $4,765.80. “Gold has surged deeper into uncharted territory as investors hedge against rising political risk,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com. 4
Rates are key here. A Reuters poll found economists now expect the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes for the rest of this quarter—and possibly hold steady until Chair Jerome Powell’s term wraps up in May. Every respondent anticipates the next move will keep the policy rate between 3.50% and 3.75%. “The economic outlook suggests the Fed should remain on hold,” said Jeremy Schwartz, a senior U.S. economist at Nomura. 5
Markets sought footing on Wednesday, with gold staying close to its recent peaks. The dollar index edged up 0.11%, while 30-year U.S. Treasury yields hovered near 4.905%, showing little movement, according to Reuters market data. 6
Gold-related stocks climbed alongside the metal in some markets. Toronto’s S&P/TSX Composite Index gained 0.4% by mid-morning. Eldorado Gold jumped 4.9% after reporting it hit the top range of its production targets for last year. 7
Other metals showed mixed moves. Silver retreated after hitting a record close to $96 an ounce on Tuesday. ANZ commodity strategist Soni Kumari cautioned the trend might swing both ways: “Silver’s rise to a three-digit number is looking quite possible,” she said. 8
Gold bulls face the risk that the recent headline-driven premium could vanish quickly. If Washington settles down, the dollar strengthens, or investors start taking profits after the sharp rise, the metal could slide back under its recent breakout points.
The calendar holds the next key tests. EU lawmakers have frozen progress on the EU-U.S. trade deal and delayed votes originally set for Jan. 26-27, leaving tariff uncertainty unresolved. Japan’s central bank decision arrives early Friday GMT, while the Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for Jan. 27-28. 9
