London, January 22, 2026, 11:47 AM (GMT) — Regular session
- After two straight days of gains, Brent and WTI slipped back.
- Attention has shifted back to U.S. inventory data, following delays caused by the holiday schedule.
- Davos comments and upcoming OPEC+ meetings maintained pressure on supply concerns.
Crude oil prices slipped on Thursday following two days of gains as traders pared back bets on geopolitical tensions involving Greenland and Iran. Brent futures dropped 61 cents, or 0.9%, to $64.63 a barrel by 0954 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate for March slid 54 cents, also 0.9%, settling at $60.08. Ole Hansen, chief commodity analyst at Saxo Bank, described the move as a “deflation of risk premium.” Tony Sycamore at IG added that oil “should hold at around $60 a barrel.” 1
This matters since crude prices have been driven as much by politics as by actual supply. The risk premium — the extra cost baked in for potential disruptions — can disappear fast. Now, with that buffer shrinking, the market is turning to new cues from demand forecasts and U.S. inventory figures.
The Energy Information Administration postponed its Weekly Petroleum Status Report due to Monday’s U.S. federal holiday. It’s now set for release on Thursday at 12:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m. Eastern. That timing is crucial since U.S. inventory data frequently shapes the market’s next move in oil. 2
On Wednesday, Trump stepped back from his tariff threats concerning Greenland and explicitly dismissed the use of force, telling reporters, “I won’t use force.” This move eased concerns about another trade blow to demand, even as Washington continued to push for a wider agreement on the Arctic territory. 3
Brent closed Wednesday at $65.24 a barrel, while WTI finished at $60.62, following a brief halt at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz and Korolev fields that squeezed supply forecasts. Reuters reported the Tengiz operator invoked force majeure—a legal clause that can excuse deliveries—on the CPC pipeline system. 4
Industry figures showed weaker fundamentals. The American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. crude stockpiles climbed by 3.04 million barrels last week, gasoline inventories gained roughly 6.2 million, while distillate levels held steady. 5
The International Energy Agency projects global oil demand growth to hit 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, up from 850,000 in 2025. According to the IEA, all of that increase next year will come from non-OECD countries. 6
At Davos, Aramco CEO Amin Nasser dismissed concerns about a looming oil glut, calling those predictions “seriously exaggerated.” He highlighted tight inventories and spare capacity sitting at just 2.5%, below the 3% threshold needed to absorb shocks. 7
Supply watchers are keeping an eye on Venezuela. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told executives the country’s output might climb 30% from roughly 900,000 barrels a day in the short to medium term, according to three attendees. 8
The downside is clear: another big build in U.S. crude inventories or any surge in sanctioned barrels hitting the market would weigh on prices. Trump said a deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war was “reasonably close” and that he planned to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, comments that fueled speculation about how a peace deal might affect supply flows. 9
OPEC+ faces key dates ahead. Earlier this month, eight producers agreed to hold off on raising output in February and March. They’re set to reconvene on Feb. 1 and called current market fundamentals “healthy” in their statement. 10
Thursday brings the EIA inventory report, followed by the Feb. 1 OPEC+ review. Prices remain highly sensitive to any news that shifts the supply risk outlook.
