New York, Jan 23, 2026, 00:49 EST — Market closed.
- On Jan. 22, BHP’s U.S.-listed shares closed roughly 1% lower, at $64.97.
- According to a Reuters report, China’s state-backed buying group has limited its BHP iron ore purchases amid ongoing contract negotiations.
- Investors are eyeing Friday’s session and BHP’s Feb. 17 results for insights on costs, China, and capital expenditure.
BHP Group’s U.S.-listed shares slipped Thursday amid fresh signs of strain in China’s iron ore supply chain and another volatile day for metals.
The stock draws attention as iron ore cash flow continues to back BHP’s major investments. If China expands purchase limits or applies deeper discounts, the impact on earnings estimates could surface quickly, just as positioning begins to adjust before results.
Copper hasn’t exactly brought calm. Its price swings have been volatile enough to shake the entire sector, with BHP caught in the middle as it pushes hard on both copper and iron ore.
BHP’s American depositary receipts (ADRs), which represent the foreign stock on U.S. markets, ended the day at $64.97 on the New York Stock Exchange. That marked a decline of 0.98%, with intraday trading ranging from $64.23 to $65.52, according to 5 .
In Australia, Fortescue revealed that China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), which handles iron ore purchases for over half of China’s steel mills, has barred some domestic mills from buying BHP shipments amid 2026 contract negotiations. Fortescue’s CEO Dino Otranto stressed the need to deepen ties with Chinese customers into a broader partnership “so our volume still flows when the market ebbs and flows.” Shares in Fortescue dropped nearly 4% after the company flagged higher costs. 1
Copper prices climbed on Wednesday following a steep drop the day before. The London Metal Exchange’s benchmark three-month copper contract rose 0.4% to $12,796 a metric ton by 1700 GMT, Reuters reported. Neil Welsh, head of metals at Britannia Global Markets, said “structural tightness continues to underpin prices.” But Dan Smith from Commodity Market Analytics expressed caution, calling the rebound “a bit dubious,” noting the Yangshan premium — which tracks China’s copper import demand — dropped to $22 a ton, its lowest level in nearly 18 months. 2
For BHP holders, the takeaway is clear: strong copper prices can boost revenue, but volatility works both ways if demand weakens or spreads shift quickly. Traders often use large diversified miners as a stand-in for the broader metals market when volatility spikes.
BHP’s potash project is weighing on sentiment again this week. On Jan. 20, the company raised the total investment estimate for Jansen Stage 1 to $8.4 billion, pushing first production back to mid-2027. BHP said the stage is now 75% complete. Americas president Brandon Craig described Jansen as an “important pillar” of the group’s long-term growth strategy. 3
There’s a clear risk on the horizon. Should China’s buying group push prices down further, tighten restrictions, or if iron ore demand falters, margins could tighten sharply—just as investors are adjusting to a heftier potash expense.
U.S. markets were closed overnight, leaving Friday’s session to depend heavily on fresh China news and copper’s ability to stabilize following its recent swings. Miners tend to react sharply to even slight shifts in sentiment when the broader macro backdrop is jittery.
BHP’s half-year results land on Feb. 17. Investors will be watching closely for updates on costs, production, capital spending — and any new info on China iron ore discussions or the Jansen project timeline. 4
