New York, Jan 23, 2026, 06:07 (EST) — Premarket
- Intel shares dropped roughly 12% in premarket trading following a weak Q1 forecast
- As AI data-center demand spikes, investors turn back to supply constraints
- Traders are focused on the open, with big-tech earnings due next week and the Fed meeting looming for fresh clues
Intel (INTC.O) shares tumbled about 12% in premarket trading Friday after the chipmaker’s forecast missed expectations, pulling back from a recent surge. If the decline sticks, Intel would lose roughly $31 billion in market value. Bernstein analysts slammed the outlook, saying the company “woefully misjudged” the server cycle. 1
The warning is significant because Intel has turned into a crowded turnaround play. Investors are betting heavily on AI data-center expansions boosting demand for the older, high-volume chips that still operate alongside the newest AI accelerators.
Intel forecasted first-quarter revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with non-GAAP earnings per share hitting $0.00—this excludes certain one-time items. CEO Lip-Bu Tan said the company is “working aggressively to grow supply” to meet demand. CFO David Zinsner added that available supply will be tightest in Q1 but should improve in Q2 and beyond. 2
But all attention was on what Intel can’t deliver right now. The company forecast revenue and profit below what analysts expected and admitted it has struggled to meet demand for server central processors — CPUs that run alongside Nvidia’s GPUs in AI data centers. “In the short term, I’m disappointed that we are not able to fully meet the demand in our markets,” Tan told analysts. Zinsner added that customers were “a little bit caught off guard” by how quickly demand surged. 3
Uncertainty clouds Intel’s foundry ambitions as it aims to carve out a contract chipmaking business to compete with larger players. The Financial Times highlighted investor worries over production expenses and delays in Intel’s next manufacturing phases. Despite generating billions in quarterly revenue, the foundry unit continues to run at a loss. 4
Some bulls highlight the recent quarter. Barron’s reported that Intel beat estimates for the December period but rattled investors with a cautious outlook for the first quarter. Meanwhile, Zinsner cautioned that supply constraints might linger and higher memory-chip prices could weigh on results later this year. 5
The downside is glaring. Intel faces the risk of missing out on lucrative data-center sales if it can’t ramp up production swiftly. That would drag out its turnaround timeline, particularly if customers divert their spending to other chips or if rising component costs continue to weigh on the PC market.
After Intel’s earnings, all eyes shift to the buyers. Investors will scrutinize next week’s big tech earnings for hints on data-center budgets, which are key to server-chip demand. 6
Macro factors continue to weigh on rate-sensitive tech stocks as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting on Jan. 27–28. 7
