New York, Jan 23, 2026, 09:10 EST — Premarket
- Intel shares dropped roughly 12% in premarket trading following a disappointing first-quarter forecast.
- Executives highlighted supply shortages in data-center processors, even as AI-driven demand remains robust.
- Investors are on the lookout for any indication of supply easing in Q2 and updates on Intel’s efforts to expand its contract chipmaking business.
Intel Corp shares dropped nearly 12% in premarket trading Friday, after the chipmaker’s forecast missed estimates and it warned of supply bottlenecks hindering its recovery. If the decline sticks, Intel would lose roughly $31 billion in market value, wiping out gains from a 47% jump this January and an 84% surge in 2025. 1
This shift is crucial since the rally had positioned Intel as a strong recovery bet. When demand stays firm but shipments lag, investors tend to price in the next few quarters rather than the longer-term narrative.
Intel closed Thursday at $54.32, paving the way for a choppy start in chip stocks and the broader tech sector. Moves this sharp tend to attract quick traders—both those jumping in on a dip and sellers who stayed out of the initial surge. 2
Intel forecasted first-quarter revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with non-GAAP earnings expected to hit $0.00 per share. The non-GAAP figure excludes certain charges that the company says mask its core performance. CFO David Zinsner mentioned that supply will be tightest in the first quarter, but should improve starting in the second quarter and beyond. 3
On a post-earnings call, CEO Lip-Bu Tan expressed disappointment that Intel couldn’t fully meet demand. He noted two customers are currently assessing the technical specs of its upcoming 14A process as Intel pushes to capture more foundry business. Zinsner told Reuters that cloud clients were caught off guard by the sudden spike in demand for server CPUs, which pair with Nvidia GPUs in AI data centers. These customers scrambled to upgrade aging chips due to an “erosion in networking performance.” Michael Schulman, CIO at Running Point Capital, said Intel’s turnaround “remains supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained,” meaning the financial boost could be delayed even if demand stays strong. 4
The sharp reversal follows a period of strong bullish bets ahead of the report. Ryuta Makino, an analyst at Intel investor Gabelli Funds, noted earlier this week that investor optimism was the highest he’d seen in years. He also predicted a double-digit price increase for server CPUs in 2026. 5
The PC market remains a challenge, with Intel ceding ground to Advanced Micro Devices and Arm-based designs. Memory prices have surged due to a global chip shortage, pushing up laptop costs just as Intel launches its Panther Lake chips on the new 18A process. At the same time, lower yields—meaning fewer usable chips per wafer—can squeeze gross margins during the ramp-up of a new manufacturing node.
On Friday, Intel submitted its annual report on Form 10-K, providing investors with a more detailed view of its financials and risk factors following the earnings announcement. 6
However, the risk remains. Should supply fail to ease as fast as Intel’s management anticipates, or if rising memory prices dent PC demand more severely, the company might miss even its scaled-back goals and come under fresh strain from competitors in servers and PCs.
The next key moment comes at 9:30 a.m. ET when the opening bell rings, as traders eye potential follow-through selling and any ripple effects across the wider semiconductor sector. Looking past Friday, rate-sensitive tech stocks confront another hurdle at the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Jan. 27–28, with the policy announcement set for Jan. 28. 7
