New York, Jan 23, 2026, 11:03 EST — Regular session
- Dollar Tree shares dropped roughly 1% in morning trading, continuing their slide following a recent downgrade.
- BNP Paribas Exane downgraded its rating and sharply lowered its price target, citing weaker sales momentum and diminishing benefits from multi-price items.
- Traders are focusing on late-March earnings to get a clearer picture of traffic, margins, and future prospects.
Dollar Tree shares fell on Friday following a downgrade from BNP Paribas Exane, which also cut its price target sharply. The discount retailer’s stock dropped 1.0% to $125.58 in late morning trading.
The call carries weight as Dollar Tree has been pushing higher prices to defend its margins and attract more customers, just as shoppers and investors gauge the post-holiday outlook. A bearish take on sales momentum can hit quickly—long before the upcoming earnings release.
The move appeared to be stock-specific. Dollar General climbed roughly 0.7%, while Walmart added about 0.4%, highlighting that the selloff in Dollar Tree wasn’t just part of a wider retail downturn.
Chris Bottiglieri of Exane BNP Paribas lowered his rating on the stock and slashed the price target to $87 from $118, according to data from TipRanks. Analysts use price targets to project where a stock might trade, typically over the coming year. 1
BNP noted in a research brief shared by TheFly that sales are expected to cool down as last year’s price hikes fall into the comparison base, making the year-over-year picture tougher. It also highlighted weaker demand in consumables—the everyday essentials that prompt regular shopping trips—and mentioned that the boost from Dollar Tree’s multi-price strategy is fading. 2
Dollar Tree reported its latest results on Dec. 3, delivering adjusted earnings of $1.21 per share on $4.7 billion in net sales from continuing operations. Comparable-store sales rose 4.2%. For fiscal 2025, the company forecasts net sales between $19.35 billion and $19.45 billion, with adjusted EPS expected to range from $5.60 to $5.80. 3
CEO Mike Creedon told analysts that higher-income shoppers were visiting more frequently, while eMarketer analyst Zak Stambor told Reuters the chain was gaining traction as “penny-pinching consumers” sought value. Those remarks helped fuel the recent rally — and set expectations high for what’s ahead. 4
Friday’s trading reflected fresh U.S. data revealing a rise in consumer sentiment for January, though it stayed far below where it was a year earlier. Shoppers continue to point to high prices as a worry. For Dollar Tree, this creates a tricky scenario: steady value demand may persist, but extra discretionary spending could falter quickly. 5
Investors are zeroed in on three key factors: store traffic, the shift toward pricier items, and whether shrink and markdowns remain in check. These elements can swing margins far more than the launch of a new store.
The downgrade isn’t set in stone. Should Dollar Tree’s multi-price assortment continue attracting wealthier shoppers—and freight and tariff costs remain under control—the upcoming earnings report might quickly shift sentiment, especially after the stock’s recent slide.
Dollar Tree hasn’t set a date for its upcoming earnings report yet, though market calendars suggest it will land in late March. This will be the next major event for both DLTR bulls and bears to watch closely — and a key moment for management to push back against the sales trend that’s raising concern among analysts. 6
