New York, January 23, 2026, 17:03 EST — After-hours.
- Gold edges to fresh highs, staying just shy of $5,000
- Dollar and yields ease as traders brace for the Fed meeting next week
- Physical premiums jump in India even as local prices set records
Gold prices hovered just below the $5,000 mark on Friday after touching a fresh record, keeping the metal in the spotlight at the end of a volatile week. Spot gold was up 0.6% at $4,964.81 an ounce after hitting $4,988.17, while U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled 1.4% higher at $4,979.70. “Gold’s role as a haven and a diversifier in highly uncertain economic and political times is making it a necessity for strategic portfolios,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. 1
The gold price move tracked a broad dip in the dollar and softer U.S. Treasury yields, a mix that tends to help bullion because it pays no interest. The dollar index — a measure of the greenback against a basket of major currencies — fell 0.61% to 97.70, while traders put the odds of the Fed holding rates steady next week at 97% via futures pricing. 2
A day earlier, gold pushed past $4,900 for the first time, powered by geopolitical tensions, a softer dollar and expectations the Federal Reserve will cut rates later this year. The latest U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, came in line with expectations, while markets continued to price two quarter-point cuts in the second half of the year. “Geopolitical tensions, generally weak dollar, expectations for the Fed easing this year are all factors… still impacting the demand,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals. 3
The rally has pulled the rest of the precious metals complex along. Silver vaulted above $100 an ounce, with StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell calling it “a self-propelled frenzy,” while BNP Paribas strategist David Wilson warned profit-taking could arrive “sooner rather than later” after the pace of gains since late November. 4
In physical markets, premiums in top consumer India jumped this week to the highest in more than a decade as buyers positioned for a possible import duty hike in the February 1 budget. Dealers charged a premium of up to $112 an ounce over official domestic prices, while local prices hit a record 159,226 rupees per 10 grams; “Demand was really strong this week and ran ahead of supply,” said Chanda Venkatesh, managing director of bullion merchant CapsGold. 5
Banks are also leaning into the move. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 an ounce from $4,900, citing private-sector diversification buying and emerging-market central banks’ demand, while flagging a pullback risk if policy fears fade and investors unwind hedges. 6
On the macro front, U.S. business activity was steady in January while price pressures remained elevated, with firms citing import tariffs as a key driver, according to S&P Global’s flash PMI surveys. “Increased costs, widely blamed on tariffs, are again cited as a key driver of higher prices,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, as investors looked to next week’s Fed decision for guidance. 7
But the pace itself is a risk. After a fast run toward a big round number, gold can slip on a rebound in the dollar, a jump in yields, or any hint from the Fed that it plans to keep policy tight for longer than traders expect.
Next up is the Federal Reserve’s January 27–28 meeting, with the statement and a press conference on January 28 likely to set the tone for rate expectations, the dollar and the next leg in gold. 8
