New York, Jan 23, 2026, 17:09 (EST) — Trading continues after hours.
- Front-month NYMEX Henry Hub gas closed at $5.275/mmBtu, marking roughly a 5% gain for the day.
- With Storm Fern and a chillier forecast through early February, traders are zeroed in on freeze-offs and storage withdrawals.
- Gas-linked stocks climbed alongside the commodity, led by gains in the UNG ETF.
U.S. natural gas futures closed higher on Friday, with the front-month contract settling at $5.275 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), up roughly 5% on the day, according to DTN data. Winter Storm Fern is forecast to bring heavy snow and freezing rain from the southern Rockies to New England through Monday. Energy Aspects projects the storm could reduce U.S. gas output by 86 billion cubic feet over the next two weeks. (DTN Progressive Farmer)
This is crucial since the market tightens most when demand and supply converge simultaneously. Bitter cold spikes heating needs, and freezing temps can shut down wells and clog pipes, particularly in areas unprepared for such conditions.
This comes alongside consistent demand from LNG exports. Liquefied natural gas facilities rely on pipeline gas for feedstock, and that need remains firm even as temperatures fall.
Storage is still the safety net, for now. As of Jan. 16, working gas in underground storage stood at 3,065 billion cubic feet, down 120 billion cubic feet from the previous week but holding above the five-year range, according to U.S. government data. (EIA Information Releases)
RBC Capital Markets noted that Henry Hub prices jumped this week, driven mainly by colder weather forecasts and steady LNG feedgas demand—the gas sent to export terminals. Heating degree days, which track heating needs, hit 581 on Friday, well above the near-normal 395. Forecasts predict temperatures will stay below average through February 6. Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group said, “During extreme cold, there are real concerns about equipment freezing … that’s going to keep the market well supported.” Ritterbusch & Associates flagged the cold could trigger “some huge storage withdrawals.” LSEG reported Lower 48 production at 108.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far this month, with demand—including exports—expected to ease to 156 bcfd next week. LNG feedgas flows remain robust, holding around 18.6 bcfd, matching December’s record. (BOE Report)
Gas-linked stocks followed the late rally. The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) climbed roughly 4% to $13.97. EQT (EQT), a leading producer, gained around 1.4%, and LNG exporter Cheniere Energy (LNG) edged up about 0.3%. Antero Resources (AR) dipped roughly 0.3%.
Setting aside the U.S. cold snap, the International Energy Agency projects Europe will import a record 185 billion cubic metres of LNG in 2026, driven by growing global supply mostly from North America. “The unfolding LNG wave is set to have a central role in shaping global gas markets,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of energy markets and security. He added this surge could eventually push prices down by boosting market liquidity. (Reuters)
This market flips quickly. If the next weather models show a warmer trend, or production bounces back faster after the freeze, the front month could be vulnerable following a week of sharp gains.
Next week’s attention zeroes in on weekend freeze-off reports, LNG feedgas flows, and if cash-market prices jump again as Fern pushes east. The next key event is the Jan. 29 EIA storage report, with forecast updates expected in early February to follow up.
