Sydney, Jan 24, 2026, 16:55 AEDT — The market has closed.
BHP Group Ltd shares (BHP.AX) enter the week with fresh scrutiny on their China iron ore sales after Reuters revealed the miner diverted Jimblebar Blend Fines — a mid-grade iron ore product — to Malaysia and Vietnam. The shipments came after China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), created in 2022 to coordinate iron ore purchases, instructed mills and traders last September not to buy Jimblebar during 2026 contract talks. Reuters pointed to a 95,000-ton cargo unloaded in Malaysia on Jan. 14 and a 75,000-ton shipment to Vietnam in December. Meanwhile, port stocks climbed sharply to 8.1 million tons by Jan. 13, a 360% spike since late September. BHP’s shares ended up 0.7% on the ASX at A$48.43, with its U.S.-listed stock rising roughly 3.9% to $67.52 and London shares up 2.1% to 2,465 pence. 1
The rerouting is significant since it affects realised prices: if Chinese buyers shun a crucial blend, BHP ends up with fewer options and a narrower customer base. The ASX will be closed Monday for Australia Day, shortening the local trading week and shifting the first full market response to Tuesday. 2
BHP is facing disruptions in Chile as striking contract workers have blocked a crucial access route to its Escondida copper mine, impacting traffic and shift changes, the company said. “Our company has been affected for four days by a third-party conflict,” said Pablo Pisani, vice president of corporate affairs and communications for Escondida-BHP, calling on authorities and involved parties to find a resolution. 3
For investors, the iron ore question boils down to leverage and duration. If the standoff with China lingers, BHP could be forced to divert more shipments to smaller Asian markets, where freight costs, timing, and pricing don’t match the steady flow from China.
They’ll also keep an eye on whether the “workaround” trade remains limited. Shipments to Malaysia and Vietnam are minimal compared to BHP’s overall iron ore volume, yet traders see them as a gauge of how intense the negotiations really are.
Peers are adapting to CMRG’s rising influence. Fortescue, a rival, revealed it’s strengthening ties with China and ramping up purchases from Chinese suppliers. CEO Dino Otranto noted on a results call that its “volume still flows when the market ebbs and flows,” despite ongoing “robust” talks with CMRG. 4
BHP finds this competitive contrast unsettling since it casts the dispute more as a matter of commercial clout than a simple logistics hiccup. Investors usually see that type of risk as persistent.
There’s a clear risk on the downside. Should China broaden restrictions or push discounts lower, cash flow takes a quick hit. Prolonged disruptions in Chile could also delay copper production and shipments.
Sydney’s Tuesday open marks the first real test, as traders hunt for signs of progress in the China talks and any follow-through on Escondida access. Expect liquidity to be lighter than usual post-holiday, which could make price moves appear amplified.
BHP’s half-year results, due Feb. 17 at about 8 a.m. Melbourne time, stand as the next major checkpoint. This will offer a clearer picture of how the China talks and ongoing operational issues are impacting the company’s numbers. 5
