Sydney, Jan 24, 2026, 17:41 AEDT — The market has closed.
South32 Ltd (S32.AX) shares slipped 0.23% to close at A$4.39 on Friday, retreating after a strong 5.26% jump the day before that pushed the stock close to its 52-week peak. On Thursday, shares had risen to A$4.40. 1
South32’s next steps depend largely on how investors digest a fresh broker upgrade amid a stock already near its peak. UBS bumped its rating to “buy” from “neutral,” while boosting its price target from 205 pence to 250 pence. The boost reflects what UBS views as improving operations and a compelling risk-reward profile. The bank also increased the valuation multiple it applies to enterprise value-to-EBITDA — a key mining metric comparing firm value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation — and highlighted free cash flow yield as further justification. 2
South32 flagged steady results in its December-quarter report on Thursday, holding FY26 production guidance steady for its operated assets. First-half unit costs came in line with, or below, guidance across most operations. CEO Graham Kerr said, “We continued to deliver consistent operating results,” citing stronger market conditions and ongoing growth investments. The company returned US$152 million to shareholders via dividends and buybacks and poured US$338 million into Hermosa. Meanwhile, guidance for non-operated Brazil Aluminium is under review, and Mozal Aluminium is expected to shift to care and maintenance around March 15.
The ASX cash market will be closed Monday for Australia Day, delaying South32’s next local trading session until Tuesday. This extends the gap over the weekend before any commodity price changes can impact Australian miners’ valuations. 3
That rally in the stock brings risk. A drop in aluminium, copper, or silver prices, or a disappointing update on costs and cash flow, could quickly weigh on a share price that’s already surged.
South32 is commonly viewed as a broad base-metals proxy, with stakes across aluminium, alumina, manganese, and copper, plus silver and zinc. This diverse lineup means the stock often reacts to changes in metal spreads and swings in investor appetite for cyclicals, even when there’s little company-specific news.
Traders on Tuesday will watch closely to see if Thursday’s jump was just a short-lived reaction or marks a fresh trading range. Volume often clusters around these production updates, and a calm close on Friday doesn’t guarantee stability once the market reopens.
South32’s half-year results for the period ending Dec. 31 are set for Feb. 12, when it will also decide on its interim dividend. The company has indicated ex-dividend dates in early March and plans to pay the dividend on or around April 2.
