London, Jan 24, 2026, 09:43 GMT — The market has closed.
- Tesco shares closed down as investors awaited Monday’s London reopening.
- A broker maintained a Buy rating while investors digest UK consumer data.
- Store crime and its related costs are back on the radar heading into the week.
Tesco PLC shares ended Friday 0.7% lower, closing at 413.20 pence. Shore Capital maintained its “buy” rating as the new week approached. 1
Timing is crucial. As UK retailers enter the final days of the post-Christmas period, investors are scrambling to determine if household spending is truly stabilising or merely bouncing back—and what that means for volumes and margins.
Fresh UK data nudged the market higher on Friday, though it left the bigger debate over 2026 demand unresolved.
British retail sales climbed 0.4% in December compared to November, the Office for National Statistics reported, defying expectations of a 0.1% drop in a Reuters survey. “The budget was tough, but people’s worst fears weren’t met,” said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton. Still, Thomas Pugh of RSM UK warned there’s a “significant downside risk to confidence continuing to recover.” 2
Tesco is turning its focus this week to shoplifting and in-store abuse—issues that don’t appear in sales figures but can erode profits. Starting Monday, Jan. 26, the grocer will roll out a crime reporting platform in 40 stores across Nottinghamshire and Leicestershire, kicking off a 10-week trial, Grocery Gazette reported. “This trial will help us improve colleague safety and tackle abuse and violent behaviour,” said Rachel Bennett, Tesco’s security director. 3
Shore Capital raised its profit forecasts following a Christmas period that outperformed expectations, maintaining its buy rating. The broker bumped up its full-year operating profit and earnings estimates by roughly 3%, highlighting strong cash flow and buyback activity, according to Proactive Investors. 4
Tesco’s recent dip keeps it comfortably within its 12-month trading band. It reached a peak of 480.50 pence and a trough of 310.30 pence over the past year, according to London South East data. 5
The bigger picture hasn’t changed: competition among supermarkets is fierce, and if lower-cost players start slashing prices again, it could swiftly alter what counts as “defensive” in food retail.
The downside scenario is clear-cut. Should consumer data weaken once more, or retail crime remain persistent, the costly security upgrades might not deliver expected returns. In that case, investors could begin lowering near-term profit forecasts despite stable headline sales.
Tesco faces the London open on Monday, with investors setting their sights on the Preliminary Results for 2025/26 due April 16. 6
