New York, January 24, 2026, 13:10 EST — The market has closed.
U.S. industrial stocks wrapped up the week on a down note, with the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) slipping 0.77% to close at $164.22 on Friday. As trading resumes Monday, the sector confronts a familiar cocktail of tariffs, interest rates, and earnings reports. 1
Timing is key. Industrials often act as a gauge for trade policy and the broader economy, both of which have made a comeback on the tape following a rocky start to 2026.
After a week marked by tariff chatter linked to President Donald Trump’s Greenland ambitions, U.S. stocks closed Friday on a mixed note. “We’re feeling pretty good, but mindful we might have some significant twists and turns throughout the rest of the year,” said Jason Blackwell, chief investment strategist at Focus Partners Wealth. 2
XLI leans heavily on a handful of companies and sectors, causing more volatility than its “sector ETF” tag might imply. As of Jan. 22, State Street data listed GE Aerospace at around 6% of the index, with Caterpillar, RTX, and Boeing close behind. Aerospace and defense accounted for about 27% of the fund’s industry exposure. 3
Friday’s tape showed mixed moves among bellwethers. Caterpillar dropped roughly 3.4%, GE Aerospace dipped about 0.4%, and RTX slipped around 0.2%. Boeing, on the other hand, inched up close to 0.3%.
GE Aerospace grabbed attention after its earnings report Thursday. The jet-engine manufacturer projects a 2026 adjusted EPS between $7.10 and $7.40, slightly above analysts’ $7.11 estimate. Airlines are increasingly relying on parts and maintenance — the aftermarket — due to ongoing shortages of new aircraft. 4
The company described its outlook as an extension of a robust finish to 2025. “We enter 2026 with solid momentum to build upon these results and are well positioned to create greater value for our customers,” CEO Larry Culp said in a statement. 5
Culp pushed back against airline claims that engine makers are exploiting shortages to hike prices in an interview with Reuters. “Tariffs and commodity inflation are just part of the equation with respect to thinking about price,” he said, noting that GE invests about $3 billion annually in research and development. 6
Macro signals remain murky for industrial traders. S&P Global’s flash composite PMI, an early gauge of business activity, stayed in expansion territory in January. Yet “increased costs, widely blamed on tariffs, are again cited as a key driver of higher prices,” noted Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. 7
The next hurdle is just around the corner: the Federal Reserve’s moves and a packed schedule of corporate earnings. “It’s been a little bit of a short but steep roller-coaster ride,” said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at PNC Financial Services Group, as markets try to steady themselves following the Greenland trade jitters. 8
The Fed’s two-day meeting is scheduled for Jan. 27–28, with its policy decision expected at 2:00 p.m. ET on Jan. 28. A press conference will follow at 2:30 p.m., according to the central bank’s calendar. 9
The sector’s downside is clear. Should tariff talk ramp up again, industrials will get hit twice—higher input costs plus slumping export demand. And if the Fed turns hawkish on inflation, expect the most sensitive stocks to adjust sharply, fast.
Investors are also eyeing a batch of U.S. data known to sway industrial sector forecasts — starting with durable goods orders on Monday, followed by consumer confidence on Tuesday, and jobless claims on Thursday. These reports often tip the scales on the debate between a “soft landing vs. slowdown” for industrial stocks. 10
