Sydney, January 25, 2026, 17:11 AEDT — Market closed
- Commonwealth Bank shares closed Friday at A$149.48, slipping 0.75% and down roughly 3% over the past five sessions
- The ASX will be closed Monday for Australia Day; inflation figures due Wednesday might shake up RBA rate expectations
- CBA’s half-year results and interim dividend dates are set for mid-February
Shares of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ended Friday at A$149.48, slipping 0.75% on the day and roughly 3.1% over the last week. Investors are sizing up upcoming macroeconomic data and earnings reports. 1
The local market faces a hurdle. The ASX cash market shuts down Monday for Australia Day, squeezing trades into fewer days and crunching the window ahead of crucial data due later this week. 2
Why it matters now: bank stocks are back to trading on interest rate moves. Changes in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s outlook can quickly affect funding costs, mortgage rates, and credit growth, hitting earnings forecasts directly.
That sensitivity works both ways. Rising rates can boost the spread banks earn between loans and deposits — the net interest margin — but they also risk squeezing borrowers and pushing up bad-debt levels if the economy falters.
Markets have shifted after Australia’s labour data came in stronger than expected. Reuters noted that money markets now price about a 57% chance the RBA will hike rates at its Feb. 3 meeting. UBS economists flagged the labour market as “going the wrong way” for inflation efforts, while Oxford Economics’ Harry Murphy Cruise pointed to 3.2% as a crucial threshold for the central bank’s trimmed-mean inflation gauge, which excludes volatile price moves. 3
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the December-quarter consumer price index on Wednesday at 11:30 a.m. AEDT, per their official schedule. 4
Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, noted that rate-sensitive sectors have been dragging markets lately. He pointed out that markets are currently pricing in about a 60% chance of a 25 basis point hike in February — with 25 basis points equal to a quarter of a percentage point. Sycamore added that the CPI reading, especially the trimmed mean, could be the key factor in the RBA’s decision next week. 5
CBA has its next big company event lined up. The investor calendar marks half-year results and an interim dividend announcement for Feb. 11. The stock will trade ex-dividend on Feb. 18, so anyone purchasing on or after that date won’t get the payout. The interim dividend itself is scheduled for payment on March 30. 6
Investors repeatedly focus on a few key areas: margin pressure in mortgages, deposit competition, costs, and any changes in arrears or loan losses. Small shifts can have an outsized impact on CBA, given its significant role in Australian equity portfolios.
Late last week, a brief technical filing surfaced. On Friday, a disclosure revealed that Commonwealth Bank and its affiliates stopped being a “substantial holder” in Karoon Energy as of Jan. 22 — a routine alert triggered when holdings dip below the reporting limit. 7
The bigger risk for CBA shareholders this week lies beyond the bank itself. If inflation comes in softer, it could ease expectations for more rate hikes and boost sentiment around rate-sensitive stocks. On the flip side, a hotter inflation figure might trigger the reverse — pushing worries about borrower strain higher as mortgage bills climb.
Trading kicks off again Tuesday following the Australia Day holiday, with CPI data due Wednesday. After that, focus shifts swiftly to the RBA’s Feb. 3 meeting and CBA’s half-year earnings on Feb. 11.
