Sydney, Jan 25, 2026, 17:33 AEDT — Markets have now closed for the day.
- National Australia Bank ended the day at A$42.35, down about 0.2% from the prior session
- Trading on the ASX cash market pauses Monday for Australia Day, then resumes Tuesday
- Investors are focused on Wednesday’s CPI data, the RBA’s early February rate decision, and NAB’s trading update scheduled for Feb. 18
National Australia Bank Ltd shares ended the week a touch lower, with investors holding back ahead of Australia’s inflation report for hints on interest rate directions and bank valuations. NAB closed at A$42.35, down 0.08 Australian dollars from the previous session, having traded between A$42.03 and A$42.50 during the day. 1
This stands out as the local market faces a shorter week. The ASX cash market won’t open Monday due to the Australia Day public holiday, pushing the next session to Tuesday—often a day marked by choppy trading and thinner liquidity.
Midweek brings a key release. At 11:30 a.m. AEDT Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish its December 2025 Consumer Price Index. This figure often moves the Reserve Bank of Australia’s stance—and bank stocks tend to follow. 2
NAB dipped as the broader market managed a modest uptick on Friday. The S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.13% higher at 8,860 points, according to ABC market data. 3
Banks dragged the market lower beneath the surface. Financial stocks fell 0.5% overall, with the “big four” lenders slipping between 0.2% and 0.8%. This follows money markets pricing in roughly a 60% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the RBA’s February 3 meeting. Marc Jocum, investment strategist at Global X ETFs Australia, pointed out that while banks could see margin gains from higher rates, they face pressure on “cost-to-income ratios” if rising borrowing costs start denting mortgage demand. 4
NAB grapples with familiar challenges in the rate debate: funding costs, home loan demand, and how quickly loan losses rise if household budgets get squeezed. The stock frequently shifts as a proxy for the RBA’s moves, even when the company itself offers no fresh updates.
A rate hike can lift interest income on paper, but it often sets off tricky second-order effects. Mortgage growth might stall, and when revenue momentum slows, investors tend to focus closely on expenses.
The policy calendar is packed. The RBA’s Monetary Policy Board is set to meet Feb. 2–3, with its decision coming at 2:30 p.m. on the final day, per the central bank’s official schedule. 5
NAB is set to unveil its first-quarter trading update on Feb. 18, according to its financial calendar. The report promises a closer look at business lending, margins, and costs as the bank moves into the second half of the fiscal year. 6
The week’s trajectory isn’t set in stone. A weaker CPI report could cool expectations for immediate rate hikes, potentially boosting bank shares. But if the data comes in hotter, yields might climb, sparking renewed concerns about mortgage demand and credit quality.
NAB investors are set to focus on Wednesday’s inflation data as they prepare for the RBA’s Feb. 3 decision. The spotlight then shifts to the company’s trading update scheduled for Feb. 18.
