London, January 25, 2026, 08:05 GMT — Market closed
Shell Plc shares (SHEL.L) closed Friday at 2,687.5 pence, up roughly 0.5%, after swinging between 2,678 and 2,722 during the session. Nigeria greenlit “investment-linked” incentives for Shell’s Bonga South West deepwater oil project. Meanwhile, Shell’s chief pointed to a possible $20 billion investment alongside partners Exxon Mobil and ENI. 1
Markets are closed for the weekend, but come Monday, traders will be wrestling with the usual trio: crude prices, cash returns, and just how much fresh long-cycle investment the oil giants can pitch without unsettling investors.
Shell faces a tricky yet timely moment. The Nigeria update signals upstream growth stretching over years, but the upcoming results will demand a closer look at trading, chemicals, and the board’s stance on buybacks.
Shell reported on Friday it repurchased shares for cancellation under its ongoing buyback plan, acquiring 572,214 shares on the London Stock Exchange at a volume-weighted average price of 27.0283 pounds. Merrill Lynch International will manage the programme independently until Jan. 30, the company added. 2
Oil prices pushed the sector higher heading into the weekend. Brent climbed 2.8% to $65.88 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 2.9%, hitting $61.07—both marking their highest levels in over a week. The gains came after Washington rolled out new sanctions targeting Iranian oil shipments and boosted its naval presence in the Middle East. 3
European stocks edged down modestly on Friday, though energy and mining stocks each rose by 1.5%, helping cap the overall slide, Reuters reported. “We’ve seen a general increase in uncertainty this year,” said Michael Field, chief European equity strategist at Morningstar. 4
Shell investors now face the question of whether the company will keep up its buyback pace ahead of its earnings. The company’s earlier update flagged weaker oil trading and softer chemicals margins, which are expected to push its chemicals and products segment into a quarterly loss. That spurred some analysts to speculate about a potential cutback in repurchases. “We are now less confident in Shell’s ability to maintain its $3.5 billion buyback,” HSBC’s Kim Fustier said. 5
The downside is clear. Nigeria incentives aren’t guaranteed, and the final investment decision—the moment a project gets the green light and major spending kicks in—could be delayed. A drop in crude prices or another disappointing quarter in trading and chemicals would put the stock’s support to the test.
Investors are now turning their attention to Shell’s fourth-quarter results and interim dividend, set for release on Feb. 5 at 07:00 GMT. 6
