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Tesco share price falls again as UK spending data turns heads — what TSCO investors watch next
25 January 2026
2 mins read

Tesco share price falls again as UK spending data turns heads — what TSCO investors watch next

London, Jan 25, 2026, 09:17 GMT — Market closed.

  • Tesco shares closed Friday 0.7% lower at 413.2 pence, slipping roughly 3% for the week
  • UK retail sales volumes climbed 0.4% in December, surpassing expectations and ending a streak of monthly declines
  • Tesco is set to release its Preliminary Results on April 16

Tesco PLC shares (TSCO.L) dropped 0.7% on Friday, closing at 413.2 pence. This continues a decline that’s shaved around 3% off the stock in the last week and leaves it roughly 9% below its early-January close near 455 pence. Share Prices

London markets were closed Sunday, leaving traders to kick off Monday focused once more on UK consumer data. Tesco, typically a steadier player amid a volatile retail sector, now faces scrutiny over whether stronger figures will shift sentiment on pricing and margins in the short term.

British retail sales volumes increased by 0.4% in December, bouncing back after drops in October and November. Non-store retailers reversed two months of declines during the same period. Office for National Statistics

Economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted a slight decline, but some investors saw a modest easing of post-budget jitters. Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton, commented, “The budget was tough, but people’s worst fears weren’t met.” Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, warned that renewed political instability could drag on confidence. The same Reuters report highlighted Tesco’s stronger performance, contrasting with weaker results from Marks & Spencer and a profit warning from Primark owner Associated British Foods, while Next raised its outlook. Reuters

Sentiment gauges aren’t surging, but they’re shifting. GfK’s consumer confidence index hit -16 in January, marking its best level since August 2024. Neil Bellamy, GfK’s consumer insights director, noted that consumers are “focusing on what they can control – their own spending and saving.” Reuters

Tesco’s latest trading update raised expectations. On Jan. 8, the retailer reported a 3.2% increase in UK underlying sales for the six weeks ending Jan. 3. It also projected adjusted operating profit—its favored metric—at the high end of its 2.9 billion to 3.1 billion pounds guidance. Yet CEO Ken Murphy cautioned that competition remains “as intense as ever.” Reuters

Murphy called consumer sentiment “mixed,” telling reporters some households are “in pretty good shape,” while others are “counting every penny.” Reuters

Tesco’s buyback quietly backs the stock. A filing from Jan. 20 revealed the company snapped up 429,649 shares on Jan. 19 as part of its £1.45 billion repurchase plan, paying an average of 425.92p each. The shares will be cancelled. Investegate

But December’s sales jump isn’t the whole story. It came after two months of declines, and data remains spotty across different categories. If real incomes take another hit, price sensitivity will spike—and that’s precisely where grocers fight for market share.

Investors should mark April 16 on their calendars—Tesco’s preliminary results for 2025/26 are due then. This update will likely reveal the company’s cash flow outlook, the speed of its buyback program, and whether it plans to shield profits without loosening its grip on pricing. tescoplc.com

Stock Market Today

  • Incremental Analyst Adjustments Refine Aberdeen Group Investment Outlook
    April 3, 2026, 5:46 AM EDT. Analyst price targets for Aberdeen Group (LSE:ABDN) have seen modest shifts, reflecting a cautious but constructive investment landscape. RBC Capital raised its target by 10 GBp, while Morgan Stanley and Citi each added 5 GBp, signaling confidence in Aberdeen's execution and growth potential. Conversely, JPMorgan cut its target by 9 GBp, citing risks that temper upside prospects. Aberdeen's fair value estimate slightly adjusted down to £2.18 from £2.21, aligning with these varied analyst views. Additionally, Aberdeen faces governance changes with Sir Douglas's scheduled board resignation on 28 April 2026, a factor investors are watching closely. Key fundamentals show modest revenue growth improvement to 1.36% and a net profit margin increase to 15.93%, though valuation multiples have contracted. These developments underscore evolving analyst narratives amid fee compression and shifts towards digital and passive investment strategies impacting Aberdeen.
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