New York, Jan 25, 2026, 13:59 EST — Market closed.
- Intel shares ended sharply lower, dropping 17.0% to $45.07 on heavy volume.
- Management warned of supply constraints in Q1 and set revenue guidance between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion.
- Monday’s focus: will chatter about supply ease up? All eyes turn to the Fed’s midweek meeting.
Intel shares closed Friday 17.0% lower at $45.07, bouncing between $48.12 and $44.25 during the session. Investors dialed back a rally that had outpaced the challenging short-term supply outlook.
This move is significant because Intel has reemerged as a high-conviction turnaround play, driven by AI-related data-center investments and its efforts to regain manufacturing trust. A steep drop early in the week could ripple through the wider chip sector, especially with major macro events on the horizon.
The immediate spark came from guidance suggesting Intel can’t deliver enough product to meet current customer demand, which remains strong. Heading into Monday’s open, the spotlight shifts firmly onto execution rather than the health of end-market demand.
Intel reported fourth-quarter revenue of $13.7 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $0.15 on its earnings call. The company expects first-quarter revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin around 34.5% and breakeven EPS. CEO Lip-Bu Tan admitted, “I’m disappointed that we are not able to fully meet the demand in our markets,” adding that yields remain “still below what I want them to be.” CFO David Zinsner noted supply constraints will be toughest in Q1 but should ease starting in Q2. 1
Non-GAAP results exclude specific items that companies claim don’t reflect their core performance. These adjusted figures are closely followed by traders, as they frequently influence guidance and valuation models.
A key challenge lies in the mix and timing. Intel has been redirecting wafer production toward server processors, but these adjustments take time to ripple through its factories. That delay is causing short-term bottlenecks, even as cloud customers ramp up demand for traditional CPUs used alongside AI accelerators.
Analysts didn’t hold back on Friday. TD Cowen argued the rally was fueled by “the dream” and not “near-term reality.” Bernstein acknowledged the server cycle seemed real but said Intel’s capacity plans were “massively off guard.” Jefferies and Oppenheimer both flagged easing constraints by Q2, according to Reuters. 2
Intel revealed an SEC filing a day earlier related to a resale prospectus supplement under an agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce. The company clarified no new securities were issued and it won’t collect any proceeds from sales made by the selling securityholder. 3
The downside is clear. Should supply remain tight beyond Intel’s projections, the company could miss out on lucrative data-center sales. At the same time, margins would stay squeezed by early production ramps and yield challenges, all while competitors chip away at market share.
Tuesday’s session will reveal if Friday’s sell-off was just a blip or the beginning of a bigger pullback. Investors aren’t only watching Intel-related news; the Federal Reserve’s Jan. 27-28 meeting looms large. The policy decision is set for Jan. 28 at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. 4
