NEW DELHI, Jan 26, 2026, 02:13 IST
- Friday saw silver surge beyond $100 an ounce, driven by a wave of retail and momentum buying.
- MCX gold and silver futures in India surged sharply last week, with IBJA reference rates holding close to record highs.
- Analysts flagged the rally as overheated, warning that profit-taking and a pullback are now real risks.
Silver surged past $100 an ounce on Friday, extending a sharp rally that’s drawn in retail investors and technical traders, prompting some to consider taking profits. This jump has spilled over into Indian bullion markets, pushing gold and silver prices higher in both futures and spot trading. 1
India’s bullion prices are crucial right now as they quickly influence jewellery costs and household saving choices, even with cautious physical buying. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for February 5 delivery closed last week at 155,963 rupees per 10 grams, climbing about 13,446 rupees over five sessions. Silver futures expiring March 5 ended at 334,600 rupees per kg, marking a weekly rise of 46,838 rupees, AajTak reported. 2
Local outlets are pointing to a potentially volatile week, with India’s Feb. 1 federal budget and India-EU trade talks in the spotlight. A PTI report picked up by Jagran suggested these two factors could drive swings in gold and silver prices shortly. 3
Gold futures on MCX remain under their all-time high of 159,226 rupees per 10 grams, though the recent rally has tightened the gap. Silver futures, meanwhile, have pulled back from a recent high close to 339,927 rupees per kg, now sitting just over 5,000 rupees shy of that peak, the report shows.
Global factors set the pace. Spot silver climbed 5.1% to $101 per troy ounce on Friday, breaking the $100 barrier. Gold meanwhile surged to a record $4,988 an ounce during the same session.
“Silver is caught up in a self-driven frenzy,” said StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell. BNP Paribas senior commodities strategist David Wilson cautioned that profit-taking would come “sooner rather than later.” 4
Strategists citing valuation metrics warn that the price action looks overstretched. Bank of America strategist Michael Widmer puts a “fundamentally justified” silver price near $60 an ounce, noting that demand from solar panel makers is expected to peak in 2025. Industrial buying is also under strain at these record-high prices.
Traders are also eyeing the gold-to-silver ratio — how many ounces of silver you need to buy one ounce of gold. It dropped to about 50 on Friday, down from 105 back in April, showing silver has gained ground on gold quite dramatically lately.
Supply constraints have supported prices. Recycling accounts for roughly 20% of annual silver supply, yet Metals Focus notes that limited high-grade refining capacity is holding back the pace at which scrap metal reenters the market. COMEX inventories, linked to the main U.S. futures exchange, have dropped to around 418 million ounces from a high of 532 million ounces on Oct. 3, the data revealed.
In India, the question of physical premiums remains unsettled. “Demand was really strong this week and ran ahead of supply,” said Chanda Venkatesh, managing director at Hyderabad’s bullion dealer CapsGold, as investors braced for potential import-duty shifts in the upcoming budget. 5
The Indian Bullion Jewellers Association (IBJA) listed 24-karat gold at 154,310 rupees per 10 grams and 22-karat gold at 150,610 rupees, according to reference prices. Silver’s reference rate ended at 317,705 rupees per kilogram, AajTak reported. Buyers continue to face extra GST and making charges, which differ depending on the city and jeweller.
Yet those very factors that sent silver soaring past triple digits could just as fast push it down. A loosening physical market, slowing inventory outflows, or momentum traders pulling back could trigger a steep decline — with local premiums intensifying moves in either direction, based on policy cues and import activity.
Traders are focused on whether silver can maintain its grip above $100, gold remains close to record highs, and if India’s budget will inject new uncertainty into an already crowded market.
